IKAR cuts Russia’s 2026 wheat harvest forecast to 90 million tonnes

Smaller planted area drives revision

Russia’s Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, known as IKAR, has reduced its forecast for the country’s 2026 wheat harvest by 0.5 million tonnes. The consultancy now expects production of 90 million tonnes, down from its previous estimate of 90.5 million tonnes, Nezavisimaya Gazeta reported.

IKAR chief executive Dmitry Rylko said the revision was mainly caused by a reduction in planted area. The adjustment is limited relative to the overall crop, but it also lowers the volume potentially available to the export market during the 2026/27 agricultural year, which runs from July to June.

IKAR cut its forecast for Russia’s wheat export potential in 2026/27 from 45 million tonnes to 44.5 million tonnes. That reduction matches the 0.5-million-tonne downgrade to estimated production, indicating that the consultancy expects the smaller crop to be reflected directly in export availability rather than absorbed entirely by the domestic market.

Grain area falls while barley expands

Official planting data provide the background to the revision. According to Rosstat figures cited by Nezavisimaya Gazeta, the area planted with grains and pulses in Russia declined to 40.8 million hectares from 43.7 million hectares. Wheat area fell to 25.5 million hectares from 26.9 million hectares, a reduction of 1.4 million hectares.

The contraction extended to several other crops. Rye plantings decreased to 377,000 hectares from 425,000 hectares, while grain corn area declined to 2.5 million hectares from 2.6 million hectares. Barley moved in the opposite direction: its planted area increased to 6.89 million hectares from 6.65 million hectares.

IKAR now forecasts Russia’s total grain harvest at 138.5 million tonnes and total grain export potential at 60 million tonnes, down from 61.5 million tonnes in its previous export estimate. The source text gives the former total-harvest forecast as 140,000 tonnes, a figure that is inconsistent with both the new 138.5-million-tonne estimate and the wheat forecast alone. The earlier total therefore cannot be used as a directly comparable production baseline without clarification.

Export availability remains substantial

The new wheat estimate still leaves exports equivalent to almost half of forecast production. For global buyers and grain traders, the key issue is not simply the 0.5-million-tonne revision but whether the documented loss of wheat area is offset by yields. The available source material does not provide a yield forecast, regional crop conditions, price projections or expected domestic consumption, so the eventual balance between production and exports remains dependent on factors not quantified in the report.

For Russian producers, the shift in acreage also points to changing crop allocation. Wheat, rye and corn lost area, while barley expanded. Exporters will be watching whether the smaller wheat base affects procurement volumes during the July–June marketing year. Importers exposed to Russian supply may likewise monitor subsequent revisions, although IKAR’s current 44.5-million-tonne export-potential estimate continues to indicate a large volume available to international markets.