IFFO forecasts 2026 fishmeal and fish-oil supply at decade lows
IFFO expects global fishmeal supply to fall below 4.6 million metric tonnes in 2026 and fish-oil supply to decline to 1.15 million tonnes. Peru’s prolonged fishing closure and Coastal El Niño conditions remain the main risks, although improved output elsewhere provided some relief in August.
Marine ingredient supply heads for a sharp decline
Global supplies of fishmeal and fish oil are expected to fall sharply in 2026 as weak raw-material availability in Peru weighs on the marine ingredients market. IFFO, the Marine Ingredients Organisation, forecasts fishmeal supply at less than 4.6 million metric tonnes, the lowest level since 2016, when global supply stood at 4.53 million tonnes.
Global fish-oil supply could decline to 1.15 million tonnes, also its lowest level since 2016, when production was estimated at about 1.13 million tonnes. Pelagic and demersal raw materials are projected to provide around 3.60 million tonnes of fishmeal and 605,000 tonnes of fish oil. IFFO expects output derived from other species to rise slightly, with fish-oil growth particularly associated with salmon trimmings and pangasius.
The forecast remains sensitive to fishing activity during the final weeks of the year. IFFO said stronger raw-material intake in several regions improved global production in August, but the accumulated deficit remained substantial. Among the countries covered by its member data, fishmeal output for the year to date was 45% below the same period of 2025, while fish-oil production was down 26%.
Peru remains the central supply risk
Peru, which accounts for about 20% of global fishmeal and fish-oil production in an average year, remained the main exception to the August improvement. Raw-material intake was still very low because the fishing season in the country’s North-Central zone remained closed. The first-season anchovy quota had been set at 1,914,049 metric tonnes, equivalent to approximately 27% of the estimated biomass, but only about 25% of that quota had been caught when fishing was suspended on 10 June.
Warm waters associated with Coastal El Niño and the high incidence of juvenile anchovy repeatedly interrupted fishing. IFFO said the conditions were expected to persist into early 2027. Peru’s Marine Research Institute, Imarpe, began a new anchovy-stock assessment on 15 September to examine the conditions affecting the species, with the study due to conclude on 7 October. Its findings will be important for any decision on reopening the fishery.
Regional gains offer only partial relief
Chile, Spain and the United States received notably more raw material in August than a year earlier, lifting the combined monthly total above the comparable 2025 level. Denmark and Norway were broadly stable, while producing countries in Africa and the Iceland/North Atlantic region continued to report softer availability. Earlier weakness in Chile, linked to difficult fishing conditions and a high proportion of juvenile fish, had also contributed to the annual shortfall.
Asian production could offset part of South America’s deficit because China, India and Oman enter peak fishing periods during the final quarter, according to IFFO. China resumed domestic fishmeal and fish-oil production in August, although raw-material availability remained uncertain. Aquafeed demand had reached its seasonal peak, but weak farm-gate prices and lower stocking of several specialty fish species limited fishmeal consumption. Demand from China’s pig sector also remained subdued. For aquaculture and livestock-feed producers, the combination of lower global supply and uneven demand increases the importance of formulation flexibility and access to alternative protein and oil inputs.