IDC: Global PC Market Could Shrink 9% in 2026 as Memory Shortage Deepens

IDC flags a deeper PC market contraction for 2026

The global personal computer market could contract by as much as 9% in 2026, according to an updated analysis from International Data Corporation (IDC). The figure marks a sharp deterioration from IDC's earlier projection, which had estimated a decline of just 2.5% over the same period. IDC has not formally revised its official forecast but is presenting scenarios far more negative than those circulating only a few weeks earlier, as reported by playground.ru.

Memory shortage at the center of the downturn

The main driver is an intensifying global memory shortage that began accelerating in mid-October and has since reached levels well beyond analysts' initial expectations. Memory has become the scarcest and most expensive component in a typical system, undermining the economics of production at the exact moment manufacturers are trying to sell AI-capable machines to consumers.

The supply crunch limits available volume, pushes prices higher and forces vendors to rethink product roadmaps. In Russia, RAM prices are reportedly approaching 45,000 rubles — close to the cost of a games console — leading some buyers to purchase a console rather than assemble a PC.

AI PC demand falls short of expectations

Marketing campaigns built around AI-enabled PCs have not generated the growth manufacturers anticipated. User enthusiasm has cooled, and there is growing frustration with the rapid, often mandatory integration of AI features, particularly in Windows 11. That leaves the industry facing rising costs without the demand tailwind it had counted on.

A worse-than-normal down year

A 9% drop is severe by historical standards. During the 2009 global financial crisis the PC market fell 11.9%, at the time the sharpest decline on record. A larger contraction of nearly 15% followed in the post-pandemic period as the market saturated, and the sector is still recovering from it.

The timing is notable because 2026 was expected to be a strong year. The end of Windows 10 support and an anticipated surge in AI PC shipments were both seen as catalysts for a broad upgrade cycle. Instead, what began as an AI infrastructure boom is now reshaping consumer hardware markets in an unforeseen way. For importers, exporters and distributors, the binding constraint is no longer demand alone but component allocation: with memory setting both availability and price, the vendors and channels able to secure supply will decide who ships in 2026, while the shortage inflates prices and forces suppliers to revise product plans at an inopportune moment.