Hydrogen pipeline plans face scrutiny over fossil-fuel lock-in

Hydrogen transport plans outpace market development

Hydrogen is expected to support decarbonisation where direct electrification is difficult, including steelmaking, fertiliser production, aviation, maritime transport and parts of heavy road transport. It can also serve as a feedstock for synthetic fuels made by combining hydrogen with carbon dioxide. Yet Il Bo Live reports that the sector is struggling to reach commercial scale because production, storage and transport costs remain too high to compete broadly with established energy sources.

One model limits transport by placing renewable generation, electrolysers, storage and industrial users in local hydrogen valleys. Another seeks to create a pipeline system comparable with the natural-gas network. That second approach is attracting scrutiny because large infrastructure commitments are being considered before low-emission hydrogen supply and demand have matured.

Europe targets a 53,000-kilometre backbone

The European Hydrogen Backbone, supported by around 30 operators mainly active in the gas industry, aims to establish 53,000 kilometres of infrastructure by 2040. Italy’s SNAM is among its participants. The declared investment is between €80 billion and €143 billion, with 40% of the network expected to use new dedicated hydrogen pipelines and 60% to consist of converted natural-gas pipelines, including subsea routes currently connecting North Africa with Europe.

The initiative’s promoters acknowledge that the routes and timetable are not fixed. The final configuration will depend on hydrogen and natural-gas market conditions and on the creation of a stable regulatory framework. This uncertainty is commercially significant: pipeline economics require long operating lives, while conversion costs and the availability of low-emission hydrogen remain unresolved.

US project illustrates the conversion risk

A group of Chinese researchers writing in PNAS highlighted the risk through a Tallgrass Energy project in the United States. In March 2026, the Navajo Nation Council granted conditional approval for infrastructure across Navajo Nation land in Arizona and New Mexico. The project had initially been presented as hydrogen transport infrastructure but is now intended to carry natural gas, with a possible future conversion to hydrogen. The developer attributed the change to evolving market conditions, while the Navajo Nation said it had not been consulted about the modification.

The researchers describe this pattern as “transition washing”: developers secure support by presenting infrastructure as compatible with a future low-carbon system, although it can expand conventional fossil-fuel operations in the meantime. Without standard definitions, mandatory verification and binding conversion commitments, hydrogen-ready projects may create carbon lock-in rather than accelerate decarbonisation.

Technical differences complicate pipeline reuse

There is currently no shared definition of “hydrogen-ready.” The term can refer to a pipeline capable of carrying a methane-hydrogen blend, or simply to a gas pipeline that might transport hydrogen later. Hydrogen under high pressure can reduce the ductility and strength of pipeline steel, creating a fracture risk known as embrittlement. Its volumetric energy density is also about one-third that of methane, requiring different pressure and compression arrangements.

The researchers are not opposing hydrogen use. They argue that it is likely to be valuable in steel, shipping, aviation fuels and selected heavy-transport applications. Their proposed regulatory approach would require projects to specify whether they are ready for blending or pure hydrogen and to disclose operating pressure, steel characteristics, compressors, valves, seals and conversion schedules. For producers, network operators and industrial buyers, those details will determine whether announced capacity becomes a functioning hydrogen market or remains part of the natural-gas system.