Hormuz Tanker Attacks Trigger US Sanctions Move, Oil Price Surge
Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, including a Qatari LNG carrier, prompted new US strikes on Iran and the revocation of a sanctions waiver on Iranian oil sales. Brent crude jumped as much as 6% intraday, tankers made U-turns, and the IMO urged ships to avoid the waterway.
Three vessels struck as ceasefire unravels
The security situation in the Strait of Hormuz deteriorated sharply this week after Iran attacked three commercial vessels transiting the waterway, according to gcaptain.com, citing US Central Command (CENTCOM). The vessels identified were the tanker Al Rekayyat, the Saudi Arabia-flagged tanker Wedyan, and the Liberia-flagged Cyprus Prosperity. Separately, gcaptain.com reported that the Qatari LNG tanker Al Rekayyat was left stationary near the strait awaiting salvage after being hit by a projectile and catching fire. UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported a third vessel was struck by an uncrewed aerial vehicle, prompting the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) to warn of a “severe” threat, gcaptain.com said.
US strikes Iran, cancels oil sanctions waiver
CENTCOM said US forces struck more than 80 targets across Iran, including air defense systems, command-and-control networks, coastal radar sites, anti-ship missile capabilities and more than 60 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps small boats near the strait, gcaptain.com reported. The Trump administration also revoked its temporary sanctions waiver for Iranian oil exports, replacing General License X with a 10-day wind-down period through July 17; no new purchases or loadings of Iranian crude, products or petrochemicals are permitted after July 7. President Trump told reporters he believed the interim US-Iran agreement was “over.” Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf rejected accusations of violating the truce, accusing Washington of repeated breaches. The US Navy said Iran's mining of the strait is designed to funnel shipping into waters it can more easily control and toll, gcaptain.com reported, while a UK-France de-mining mission was set back by the renewed attacks, days after Oman had granted access.
Oil and gas markets whipsaw
Brent crude settled more than 3% higher and rose a further 2.8% in early trading to above $76 a barrel, according to hellenicshippingnews.com, citing ING research. Later reporting from oilprice.com showed Brent spiking as much as 6% to $78.58 and WTI to $74.76, with other snapshots showing Brent at $76.58 and WTI at $72.74, and a further report citing Brent up 5.5% to $78.24 following Trump's remarks that the truce was “over.” European TTF gas rose more than 4% to above €48/MWh, with storage less than 51% full against a five-year average of 66%, per hellenicshippingnews.com/ING. The ICE gasoil crack strengthened above $50/bbl, reflecting tightening middle-distillate supply as Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries curbed diesel exports. API data showed US crude inventories fell 400,000 barrels last week, with gasoline and distillate stocks down 2.9 million and 1.8 million barrels respectively.
Tanker traffic disrupted, glut fears resurface
At least four oil and LNG tankers made U-turns from attempts to transit Hormuz within 12 hours of the attacks, according to Reuters vessel-tracking data cited by oilprice.com, though six tankers were also observed completing or starting transits shortly after. Oilprice.com reported roughly 63 million barrels of crude stuck at sea as Iran, already struggling to sell to Asian buyers outside China, faces renewed constraints on its exports. IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez condemned the attacks and urged shipowners, operators and flag states to avoid exposing crews to unnecessary danger, noting nearly 6,000 seafarers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf. Elsewhere, oilprice.com noted some analysts, including the Wall Street Journal, had begun warning of a renewed supply glut as tankers left the Persian Gulf in greater numbers than in the prior three months, even as Hormuz risk resurfaced. In metals, aluminium extended gains from a four-month low on Chinese buying interest, with COTR data showing net long positions in LME aluminium falling for a fourth straight week to 53,923 lots, the lowest since May 2019, per hellenicshippingnews.com/ING. Gold held above $4,000/oz, supported by safe-haven demand and continued central bank buying, including a 20th consecutive monthly increase in China's gold reserves in June.