Heat threatens Ukraine’s potato harvest as autumn procurement prices may rise 25–30%
Abnormal summer heat may reduce Ukraine’s potato harvest after temperatures exceeded 37°C for five consecutive days during a critical crop-development stage. Procurement prices could rise by 25–30% in October–November, followed by another increase of about 10% in winter.
Extreme heat hits tuber formation
Ukraine’s potato harvest is expected to be lower this year after abnormal summer heat disrupted crop development, raising the prospect of a sharp increase in procurement prices during the autumn. TSN reported that prices could rise by approximately 25–30% in October–November as supplies of early varieties run out and the market shifts toward mid-season and late potatoes.
The forecast was provided by Tetiana Oliinyk, a candidate of agricultural sciences and deputy director for research at the Institute of Potato Growing of the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine, in comments to Glavcom. She said temperatures exceeded 37°C for five consecutive days during the summer. The heat coincided with potato flowering and budding, when the future tubers are formed.
Oliinyk said potato plants stop growing under such conditions because the crop is adapted to a temperate climate and is vulnerable to extremely high temperatures. During intense heat, plants direct their resources toward survival rather than yield formation. The resulting loss of productivity is expected to reduce market supply and influence prices later in the season.
Seasonal low prices may prove temporary
Potato prices temporarily declined to 6.5–8 hryvnias per kilogram at the end of summer. According to Oliinyk, the drop reflected large-scale sales of early varieties rather than an improvement in the overall harvest outlook. Early potatoes cannot be stored for long periods, encouraging growers and sellers to move them quickly onto the market.
This seasonal volume creates short-term pressure on prices, but it does not indicate that potatoes will remain inexpensive throughout the autumn. Once early-variety stocks are exhausted, mid-season and late varieties will account for most of the available supply. Their market position will depend more directly on the yield damage caused by the summer heat.
Oliinyk expects procurement prices to increase by approximately 25–30% in October–November. The forecast concerns prices paid for potatoes at the procurement stage, rather than a guaranteed increase of the same size at retail. Nevertheless, a rise at the farm and wholesale level would increase costs for traders, processors and other buyers operating in Ukraine’s domestic potato market.
Storage costs add winter pressure
Prices could rise by a further 10% during winter, according to the forecast. This additional increase would be linked to producers’ storage expenses, including the cost of ventilation and maintaining the required temperature inside potato-storage facilities. These costs become more important after the main harvest period, when the market depends increasingly on stocks held in storage.
The combination of reduced yields and higher storage costs means buyers should not expect the low prices recorded at the end of summer to persist. Producers with suitable storage capacity may be better positioned to supply the winter market, while those selling directly after harvest will remain more exposed to autumn procurement conditions.
For processors, wholesalers and retailers, the key transition will come when early potatoes leave the market and later varieties become dominant. The scale of the harvest decline was not quantified, but the five-day period above 37°C affected a critical stage of plant development. Supply conditions in October–November and the cost of maintaining winter inventories will therefore determine how much of the projected increase reaches downstream buyers and consumers.
