Heat and drought threaten Italy’s corn, soybean and milk output
Exceptional heat and scarce rainfall are cutting crop and dairy output across Italy, with the most severe pressure in the north. Coldiretti estimates potential soybean losses of up to 40%, forage losses of up to 30% and milk declines reaching 20% in some herds.
Northern regions face the heaviest crop losses
Exceptional temperatures and a lack of rainfall are threatening Italy’s summer and autumn harvests, while heat stress is reducing dairy output. Il Messaggero, citing the farmers’ association Coldiretti, reports severe water stress across corn, soybean, vegetables, fruit, olive groves, vineyards and forage crops, particularly in central and northern Italy. Milk production on affected farms has fallen by as much as 20%.
The sharpest risks concern corn and soybean, two crops central to livestock feed and agricultural trade. Corn output could be eliminated entirely in some areas, while estimated soybean losses reach 40%. Forage production may fall by up to 30%, and reductions for many vegetable crops could reach 20%. Lower domestic feed availability would increase pressure on livestock producers already paying more for irrigation and energy.
Piedmont and Lombardy are among the worst-hit regions. Current losses in Piedmont are estimated at 30% to 40%, according to Coldiretti, and could reach 80% without rainfall. In Lombardy, extreme heat has disrupted the corn season and prompted early chopping in agricultural provinces. Tomato production is also under pressure, while milk output is already down 10% in some cases and as much as 20% at the worst-affected farms.
Feed supplies and processing crops come under pressure
In Veneto, accelerated ripening is affecting corn and other crops. Ears without kernels point to lower supplies for animal feeding. In Emilia-Romagna, some damaged corn has been converted into silage to limit losses. The Bologna area is recording estimated declines of 30% for corn, sorghum and sugar beet and 40% for soybean. These reductions affect both feed users and processors that depend on locally harvested raw materials.
The drought is also spreading across central Italy. Some Tuscan areas face vegetable losses of 20%, while the grape harvest has moved forward. In Lazio, corn, forage, cereals, fruit and vegetables are struggling. Milk output has declined by as much as three liters per cow per day, and corn production could fall to zero in the most extreme locations. Liguria faces potential losses of 20% to 30% across olive groves, vegetables and orchards.
Southern crops show uneven exposure
Puglia is experiencing the clearest impact in southern Italy. Tomato output is down 10% per hectare, while potential watermelon losses reach 60%. Heat stress is also affecting livestock. Sicily is reporting difficulties for vegetables and watermelons, including in the Trapani area. In Calabria, irrigation has kept the damage localized, although premature fruit drop has already been observed in olive and citrus groves.
Conditions remain under control in Sardinia, while Campania is maintaining continuous monitoring. Coldiretti says prolonged high temperatures would make faster investment in water management necessary, including rainwater reservoirs, efficient pumping systems and reductions in water-network leakage. For importers and market analysts, the immediate variables are rainfall, the final corn and soybean yields and the availability of forage. Further losses could reduce Italy’s domestic feed supply and increase demand for replacement volumes, while weaker tomato, vegetable and fruit harvests could tighten availability for processors and fresh-produce buyers.
