Heat and drought cut potato yields in parts of Kazakhstan, but farmers expect no shortage

Adverse weather reduces regional yields

Prolonged heat and drought have reduced potato yields in several of Kazakhstan’s main producing regions, raising concern that consumer prices could increase despite expectations of sufficient national supply. NUR.KZ, citing a report by 31 Channel, said growers in the Pavlodar and Karaganda regions were affected, along with parts of the Akmola and Kostanay regions.

Harvesting is under way in the Karaganda region, where farmers remain relatively optimistic. They report that the crop is smaller than last year’s harvest but larger than the harvest two years ago. Tubers are smaller, although growers expect them to store better. Alexander Matviyenko, an agronomist and manager at Eurasia Invest LLP and Agro-Krestyansky Dvor LLP, said the region endured 80 critical days of heat. The conditions placed the crop under stress, but he said discussions with other producers indicated that potatoes were available and quality was very good.

Expanded acreage supports the supply outlook

Farmers do not expect a potato deficit because many producers increased the area planted with the crop. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Agriculture has also said it sees no current supply problem. According to the ministry, potatoes are grown mainly on irrigated land, making output directly dependent on access to irrigation water. It said no shortage of water resources for irrigation was recorded during the current season.

Data supplied by local executive authorities showed that 100% of potato plantings were in good or satisfactory condition during the growing period, the ministry said. That assessment suggests that reduced yields in weather-affected regions may be offset by irrigation and additional acreage elsewhere. However, the difference between national availability and regional performance remains important for storage operators, wholesalers and retailers managing supplies after the harvest.

Farm and retail prices diverge

Farmers are currently selling potatoes for 100-110 tenge per kilogram, while some producers without storage facilities are accepting 80 tenge. At the retail level, selected potatoes can sell for 300 tenge per kilogram. Baizhan Ualikhanov, chairman of the Union of Potato and Vegetable Growers of Kazakhstan, cited an example in which the farm supplying a local shop received 100 tenge per kilogram while the shop charged 300 tenge.

The sector says almost all farmers sell through intermediaries, sometimes across three or four stages. Individual farms generally lack the ability to create their own logistics companies and deliver small consignments directly to supermarkets. The growers’ union argues that if the state intends to regulate prices, it should examine the role of resellers and the margins accumulated between farms and stores.

Debt and taxes encourage early sales

Growers are also facing a higher value-added tax and debt obligations. Many took additional loans at the beginning of the year to pay for machinery they had ordered. According to Ualikhanov, some are now selling potatoes at discounted prices to reduce their tax and credit burden and repay those loans.

This pressure can increase the volume offered immediately after harvest, particularly by farms without warehouses, even when producers expect prices to rise later. The available evidence therefore points to a market shaped by uneven regional yields, financing needs, limited farm-level storage and a long distribution chain rather than an outright national shortage. For buyers, the key issue will be how much of the crop can be stored and released gradually, and how farm-gate savings are transmitted through intermediaries to consumers.