Heat damage and seasonal gap tighten Tunisia’s fresh tomato supply

Heat losses emerge in the autumn harvest

Fresh tomatoes have become less plentiful in Tunisia after summer heat damaged late plantings and the market entered a transition between production cycles. Industry representatives cited by Tunisie Numérique do not describe the situation as a nationwide shortage, but they expect reduced availability to keep pressure on supply and prices through October and possibly November.

Adel Antit, a tomato-sector representative, told Diwan FM that part of the crop intended for the current market window was planted from late June. Several periods of high temperatures struck during this sensitive stage, damaging or destroying young plants and reducing the area that ultimately reached production. Médani Dhaoui, president of the Tunisian Farmers’ Union, told the Ahla Sbeh programme that heat during flowering caused flowers to drop and slowed fruit development, lowering yields in the autumn crop.

Production gap amplifies the losses

The weather shock coincided with a seasonal handover. Abdallah Sahraoui, president of the Sahel Olive Growers’ Union, said supply was moving from the end of some greenhouse production in the Sahel toward the gradual arrival of seasonal crops from areas including Sidi Bouzid and Kasserine. Monastir governorate alone has about 10,500 greenhouses, according to Sahraoui, making the timing of the transition significant for national availability.

Heat was not the only cause of crop damage. Sahraoui also cited hail, while losses were reported in Sejnane and Garaet in Bizerte governorate, as well as in Kasserine and Gafsa. Tuniscope reported that Sabiba, Foussana and Feriana were among the production areas affected by difficult weather. Damage across several growing zones has limited the ability of one region to compensate for weaker output elsewhere.

Retail prices rise above 3.6 dinars

The tighter supply has become visible in retail markets. AllAfrica reported that tomatoes were absent from some supermarkets and scarce at smaller retailers. At the weekly market in Zaghouan, tomatoes sold for 3,600-4,000 millimes, or 3.6-4 dinars per kilogram, on September 24, 2026. Traders interviewed by Jawhara FM attributed the increase to high temperatures and the resulting production decline, while saying prices could stabilize in the coming period.

The market had looked very different at the start of summer. According to Ministry of Trade and Export Development data cited by Tunisie Numérique, tomato arrivals at the Bir El Kassaa wholesale market reached 3,834 tonnes in June, up 78.3% from May. Abundant supply pushed the average wholesale price down 62.5% in one month to 902 millimes per kilogram. Three months later, losses in the plantings intended to bridge late summer and early autumn reversed that supply picture.

Next harvests will determine relief

Antit did not provide a national price forecast, noting that consumer prices vary by region, distribution channel, quality and local volumes. He also urged consumers to avoid rushed purchases that could intensify pressure. The timing of any normalization now depends on the maturity and yields of incoming crops from Sidi Bouzid, Kasserine and other production basins. Further adverse weather could delay the recovery.

The fresh-market disruption is separate from the problems faced by processing tomatoes in July and August. Repeated electricity cuts then raised fears that nearly 35% of the relevant crop could be lost. In Cap Bon, only 5-6 of 14 processing plants were operating normally or remained active, while outages also disrupted irrigation. Together, the episodes show how heat, hail, irrigation constraints, electricity supply and poorly aligned crop cycles have tested Tunisia’s tomato chain in 2026.