9 September 2026, 10:55 UTC

Greek kiwifruit volumes forecast up 25-30%, Italy counters with quality and segmentation

Greece is heading into a potentially record kiwifruit season with volumes forecast 25-30% above last year, according to italiafruit.net. Italy expects good availability, positive quality and a skew towards medium-large sizes. Trade sources say the two origins may compete less directly than aggregate volumes suggest, with size, shelf life and varietal mix deciding the 2026/27 European campaign.

Greece is preparing for a potentially record kiwifruit season, with volumes forecast to grow 25 to 30 percent against last year, according to the Italian trade publication italiafruit.net. Italy heads into its own harvest with good availability, generally positive quality and fruit weighted towards medium-large sizes. Taken together the figures point to heavy supply in the 2026/27 European campaign, but the outlet warns that reading the season on volume alone is a mistake.

Greece pushes volume, Italy pushes segmentation

Marco De Nadai, an intercontinental export specialist and licensee of the Red Passion and Gold Passion kiwifruit varieties, told italiafruit.net that the decisive variable will be product mix rather than headline tonnage. “The real element to watch will not only be how much is harvested, but above all what product reaches the market,” he said. Greece will have large volumes to place, he added, but the production increase is expected to come with a significant share of medium-small sizes, a consequence of high yields. Questions also remain over general quality and over the storage capacity of part of the crop.

For Italy, De Nadai argues, the lever is segmentation of the offer. Italian fruit can find a competitive advantage in the combination of size, quality and holding capacity, particularly in programmes aimed at distant markets and premium segments. On that basis Italy and Greece may compete less directly than aggregate data suggest: Greece is positioned to play aggressively on the commercial front and in European retail chain programmes, while Italy has the option to concentrate on value creation, shelf life and differentiation.

Southern Hemisphere exit opens a window

The gradual withdrawal of Southern Hemisphere supply is working in Europe’s favour. Chile is closing its export season before European production fully enters the market, creating a window for Northern Hemisphere fruit, according to italiafruit.net.

“The main international markets are looking again towards Europe and the Mediterranean to rebuild their sourcing programmes,” De Nadai said. That returning demand, he added, can soften the effect of an abundant European crop, at least in the first phase of the season.

The risk is not too much fruit, but starting too early

On this reading the greater danger is haste rather than oversupply. With Greek volumes at record levels and the usual tension at the start of a campaign, the temptation to bring harvest and marketing forward in order to take market position will be strong, and De Nadai calls it probably the most expensive mistake available. Commercial value in kiwifruit, he says, is built first in the orchard and at picking, determined by:

dry matter content
Brix level
firmness
uniformity
correct physiological maturity

Those parameters set not only the quality the consumer perceives but also the fruit’s ability to travel long distances and to extend the commercial season. With more product available the market will inevitably become more selective, and as selectivity rises, mediocre fruit suddenly becomes abundant while genuinely good fruit can become relatively scarce.

Gold and red redraw the category

A second, structural shift is reshaping the Italian landscape: the growth of yellow- and red-fleshed production. The Gold segment continues to gain weight through both established varieties and new cultivars that have significantly widened production and commercial options in recent years, producing an increasingly articulated category.

Yellow kiwifruit is no longer simply an alternative to the traditional Hayward but a market segment in its own right, with different harvest windows, taste profiles and positioning. Wider varietal availability allows operators to build longer and more differentiated programmes, creating value across a growing part of the season. Red kiwifruit remains a niche in volume terms but continues to gain ground, with colour, taste and nutritional characteristics supporting an increasingly recognisable premium positioning. The “superfruit” concept, De Nadai added, is beginning to enter consumer perception of a still young category.

The 2026/27 campaign could therefore mark a further step in the European kiwifruit market, with Greece continuing to grow as a major producing and exporting origin and Italy having progressively less interest in competing on volume alone. As De Nadai put it, the comparison between origins risks becoming less important than the comparison between segments.

Expert commentary

“Greece adds 25-30% volume in a single season. That number alone does not decide the campaign; the size breakdown does. High yields normally push the curve towards medium-small fruit, and that is exactly the part of the range where European retail programmes get crowded and prices break first. Italy arrives with medium-large calibres and better holding capacity, which is a different shelf and often a different continent. So the head-to-head between the two origins is weaker than the aggregate tonnage suggests.

The timing matters more than the volume. Chile is closing its export season before European fruit is fully in, which leaves the Northern Hemisphere a clean window at the start of the campaign, with international buyers rebuilding sourcing programmes out of Europe and the Mediterranean. That absorbs the first waves. The mistake would be to pick early to grab position: dry matter and Brix are set in the orchard, and fruit harvested before physiological maturity will not hold long enough to reach distant markets or to trade late in the season.

With more supply, buyers get selective, and selectivity splits the market in two. Mediocre fruit becomes abundant and takes the price hit; fruit with size, firmness and shelf life becomes relatively scarce and holds value. The varietal shift points the same way, with Gold now a segment of its own rather than an alternative to Hayward, and red still small in volume but building a premium position. For 2026/27 the origin label matters less than the segment a grower is actually selling into.”

Martin Keller

Senior Agricultural Commodities Analyst