Grain traders await USDA report as Argentina heads toward record wheat harvest
Grain markets are cautious before the USDA’s Aug. 12 supply-and-demand report, with US corn output and stocks among the main variables. Argentina’s wheat crop could exceed 20 million tonnes, while expected Brazilian imports may create additional export opportunities.
Markets position for USDA estimates
International grain markets have turned cautious ahead of the US Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply-and-demand report on Aug. 12. La Capital reported that profit-taking followed several weeks of gains driven by speculative fund buying. The US Crop Tour, beginning Aug. 17, will provide another assessment of crop conditions and could influence prices in the following weeks.
For soybeans, analysts expect limited changes. US production is projected at 121.7 million tonnes, compared with the previous estimate of 121.8 million tonnes, while ending stocks could fall from 8.5 million to 8.3 million tonnes. Some 63% of the crop is rated good to excellent, down from 69% a year earlier, although forecasts for rain and more moderate temperatures have eased immediate concerns.
China has purchased about 6 million tonnes of US soybeans under an annual commitment to buy 25 million tonnes. However, its July imports fell 1.6% year on year to 11.48 million tonnes as lower soybean-meal demand accompanied a reduction in the country’s pig herd. Analyst Dante Romano said the recent buying appeared more closely connected to trade commitments than to stronger domestic consumption.
US corn forecasts face downward revisions
The market expects the USDA to reduce its US corn production estimate from 406.4 million to 404.7 million tonnes and ending stocks from 45.5 million to 43.8 million tonnes. Crop conditions have also weakened, with 61% rated good to excellent against 73% a year ago. Expana separately cut its European Union harvest forecast by 4.6 million tonnes because of the heat wave.
Argentina’s corn harvest is progressing slowly because of excess moisture. Farmers have collected 73.7% of the eligible area, compared with 89.3% at the same point last year and 12 percentage points behind the average of the past decade. Prices nevertheless remain supported by international demand: the export line-up exceeds 2 million tonnes, while sales in the latest week were about 1.2 million tonnes.
Argentine wheat gains support from crop conditions
Argentina’s wheat outlook remains favorable, with 99.6% of fields rated normal to excellent and 81.5% reporting adequate or optimal moisture. Although planting remains unfinished in southeastern Buenos Aires province, national production could exceed 20 million tonnes. Brazil has reduced its planted area and faces production difficulties, leading to an import estimate of 8 million to 10 million tonnes in 2026 and potential opportunities for Argentine exporters in the 2026/27 season.
Black Sea risks are also supporting wheat. A Russian attack damaged a wheat-carrying vessel at the port of Odesa, while Algeria avoided Russian grain and bought between 540,000 and 720,000 tonnes from other suppliers because of logistical concerns. Separately, the Rosario Board of Trade expects Greater Rosario’s share of Argentina’s total wheat shipments to fall from 73% last year to 45% this year. Broader food prices are firming: the FAO index increased from 130.3 to 131.1 points in July, including gains of 3.4% for cereals and 2.8% for vegetable oils.
