Gold cools from record highs as analysts cut their 2026 price forecasts

The gold market has moved out of the record-setting phase that opened 2026 and into a correction, while demand volumes remain close to historic highs. The second-quarter report from the World Gold Council, the international body of the gold industry, describes a global market that is less euphoric than at the start of the year but far from exhausted, Corriere Adriatico reported.

The average gold price in the second quarter was 8% below the record set in the first quarter, according to the World Gold Council. Measured against the same period of 2025, it was still 37% higher. The correction is therefore being measured from an exceptional base rather than a normal one.

Record value on softer prices

Global gold demand in the first half of 2026 reached 2,522 tonnes, worth an estimated record $380 billion, the World Gold Council said. Purchases of bars and coins held relatively stable, returning to more typical levels after two unusually intense quarters.

The report describes a market searching for a new equilibrium: less driven by the chase for new highs, still supported by geopolitical tension, inflation concerns and demand for assets that diversify a portfolio. Public debt, international instability, confidence in currencies and central bank buying remain the structural factors behind the metal's multi-year advance.

First forecast cut since 2023

A Reuters survey of 29 analysts and traders recorded the first downward revision of gold price forecasts since the end of 2023. The median projection for 2026 was lowered to $4,509 an ounce, after a peak of roughly $5,595 an ounce reached in January.

Physical metal, premiums and the gap to spot

Stefano Costanzo, founder of Costanzo Gold Traders, a dealer specialised in buying and selling gold and precious metals, said the pause was to be expected. “After such rapid growth, it was predictable that the market would go through a phase of adjustment,” he said, adding that buyers have become more deliberate: “People have not lost interest in gold, but they ask more questions and want to understand better when to buy, which format to choose and what role gold can play within their assets.”

Alongside funds and ETFs, part of the retail public is returning to direct ownership of bars and coins. Requests at the firm's four locations in Rome include small-denomination bars and internationally recognised coins, products that allow buyers to start with smaller amounts and spread purchases over time. “Small sizes make it possible to approach this market gradually,” Costanzo said. “Naturally, production and certification costs weigh proportionally more on a small bar than on a large one. That is why it is important to look not only at the total price, but also at the premium applied over the metal's quotation.”

The quoted international price refers to pure metal. For a bar or a coin, production, certification, transport, product availability and the dealer's margin are added on top, and the same gap works in reverse on resale, where the price offered can differ from the theoretical quotation shown online. “A transparent operator must clearly state purity, weight, provenance, buyback conditions and the difference from the spot price,” Costanzo said.

What the second half holds

For the second half of 2026 the World Gold Council expects investment to remain the main source of demand growth, with central bank purchases staying relevant without necessarily matching the exceptional levels of recent years.

That leaves the market between two forces: greater caution driven by the price correction and by interest rate expectations, against a geopolitical and economic backdrop that continues to favour safe-haven assets. Gold pays neither interest nor dividends and its price can fall significantly; its role, Corriere Adriatico notes, is diversification within broader wealth planning.