Global whisky market adjusts as India drives volume growth

Whisky outperforms a declining spirits market

The international whisky market entered 2026 with sharply different results by origin, price tier and destination. IWSR estimates that global beverage alcohol volume fell 2% in 2025, the third consecutive annual decline. Across 22 comparable markets representing about 75% of worldwide volume, spirits declined 4% by volume and 9% by value. Excluding national spirits, both measures fell 1%.

Whisky results were more resilient in selected categories. Indian whisky increased 2% by volume and 3% by value in 2025, according to IWSR, while Irish whiskey rose 2% on both measures. Scotch exports lost more volume than value, indicating less frequent purchasing and a shift toward more affordable products. Export value for single malt Scotch fell 6%.

Scotch retains scale as American exports retreat

The Scotch Whisky Association valued 2025 exports at £5.3 billion, equivalent to 1.34 billion 70-centilitre bottles. Value declined 1.8% and volume dropped 4.3%. The United States remained the leading destination by value, while India became the third-largest by value and the largest by volume. In 2024, comparable WITS and UN Comtrade data for HS 220830 put declared whisky exports at $7.02 billion for the United Kingdom, $1.53 billion for the United States and $1.13 billion for Ireland.

American whiskey recorded the steepest correction among the major origins. DISCUS said exports fell 19% to $1.08 billion in 2025. Shipments to the European Union dropped 35%, Canada 57% and Japan 28%, although exports to the rest of the world increased 13%. US supplier sales declined 0.9% to $5.1 billion.

Inventories add pressure. DISCUS put US stocks near 1.5 billion proof gallons at the end of 2024, roughly three times the 2012 level. Domestic sales reached 57 million proof gallons in 2025 and exports totaled 40 million. Some inventory requires years of maturation, but the scale increases financing, production and discounting risks.

India leads growth while trade rules shift

India’s total beverage alcohol volume grew 4% in 2025, with whisky accounting for more than half of servings. IWSR says imported spirits expanded at an average annual rate of 16% between 2019 and 2024. Market access still depends on state-level tax and distribution systems. The UK-India trade agreement took effect on 15 July, immediately reducing India’s tariff on British whisky from 150% to 75%, with a decline to 40% from the tenth year.

China cut its whisky import tariff from 10% to 5% on 2 February, Reuters reported. The country imported $445.5 million of whisky in 2025, with 84% supplied by the United Kingdom. Demand is increasingly centered on personal consumption, small groups, home drinking, smaller formats and rapid delivery rather than corporate banquets and gifts. Meanwhile, Scotch shipments to the European Union fell 9% by volume in 2025, although Germany grew and Türkiye’s Scotch import value increased 43%.

Lower consumption per occasion reshapes demand

IWSR’s Bevtrac H1 2026 survey found alcohol participation at 74% among Generation Z, compared with 76% for all adults, 81% for millennials, 77% for Generation X and 71% for boomers. Average consumption per occasion declined to 3.9 drinks from 4.4 during 2024-2025. This favors deliberate purchases, smaller formats, ready-to-drink cocktails and products with a clear value proposition. Producers must therefore balance India-led expansion against weaker mature markets, high inventories and demand shifting away from expensive bottles without a compelling justification.