Global processing tomato output to fall below 40 million tons as Ukraine greenhouse prices stay high
The World Processing Tomato Council expects global processing tomato output to fall to 39.8 million tons in 2026, below the 40-million mark, as Spain, Iran, Greece and Brazil cut harvests. Ukraine holds its crop at 550,000 tons, but fresh greenhouse tomato prices remain well above last year after growers switched to cucumbers.
Global production of processing tomatoes will fall below 40 million tons this season, according to the World Processing Tomato Council (WPTC), while greenhouse tomato prices in Ukraine remain well above last year's level. The council's updated forecast puts 2026 output at 39.8 million tons, below the symbolic 40-million-ton mark, as extreme weather cuts harvests across major producing countries.
Global output slips below 40 million tons
Heat, drought, hail and heavy rains have forced large producers to revise crop forecasts downward, according to the WPTC data cited by obozrevatel.com. Spain faces the steepest losses, with the expected harvest lowered to 2.7 million tons after heat and hail. Greece cut its forecast by roughly 10,000 tons following storms and hail, while Iran reduced its estimate to 1.7 million tons because of water shortages. Brazil is contending with the aftermath of May rains and the spread of plant diseases.
Italy is the exception. Thanks to expanded planting areas, its forecast was raised to 6.1 million tons, despite restrictions on the use of river water. Because processing tomatoes supply the international market for paste, ketchup and sauces, the shortfalls in Spain, Greece, Iran and Brazil could push up global prices for tomato raw material.
Ukraine holds output steady at 550,000 tons
Against that backdrop, Ukraine looks comparatively stable. The WPTC kept its forecast for industrial tomato output at 550,000 tons, matching the 2025 result, so production is expected to hold despite the global heat and drought. The report describes weather conditions as broadly favorable: planting finished by mid-June and harvesting is due to begin in the second week of August. For now, obozrevatel.com notes, there is no reason for concern on the domestic market, though prolonged bad weather elsewhere could lift the cost of imported tomato products.
Greenhouse prices stay above last year
Fresh greenhouse tomatoes tell a different story. Despite the seasonal rise in supply, prices remain well above 2025 levels, Dengi.ua reported, citing the journal Plantator. In early June greenhouse tomatoes sold for 80–120 UAH per kilogram, down from 150–170 UAH and isolated batches near 230 UAH, but still above the 60–75 UAH producers charged a year earlier. AgroTimes, cited by 24tv.ua, reported the same range.
The main cause is reduced supply: many greenhouse operators switched to cucumbers this season, cutting tomato volumes, while output from summer greenhouses and open ground has yet to move the market and imports remain too small to change the picture. Pink, plum and cherry tomatoes stay the most expensive, while classic red varieties are gradually cheapening as the new harvest arrives.
Price outlook for buyers
In supermarkets, OBOZ.UA monitoring put ordinary red tomatoes at roughly 70 to 92 UAH per kilogram — 20 to 40 UAH cheaper than at the end of June, and almost a third of the May average, which topped 230 UAH. Analysts advise buyers not to rush. The cheapest period usually arrives in the second half of August, when Ukrainian open-ground tomatoes dominate and prices fall to their seasonal low. “Tomatoes are getting cheaper more slowly than cucumbers, because they need more heat. For now the greenhouse tomato dominates,” said Ksenia Guseva, an analyst at APK-Inform, adding that prices should decline once summer greenhouse and open-ground volumes reach the market en masse.
