Global low-carbon hydrogen output projected to reach 1.2 million tonnes in 2026
The International Energy Agency projects global low-carbon hydrogen production at 1.2 million tonnes in 2026, up from 0.9 million tonnes in 2025. Natural gas conversion will provide two-thirds of output, while electrolyzer capacity and cumulative investment continue to expand.
Production moves above 1 million tonnes
Global low-carbon hydrogen production could reach 1.2 million tonnes in 2026, compared with 0.9 million tonnes in 2025, according to an International Energy Agency forecast cited by vc.ru. The expected increase of 0.3 million tonnes would keep the sector on a growth path, although its production base will remain divided between fossil-fuel conversion and electrolysis.
Hydrogen made by converting natural gas is projected to account for 0.8 million tonnes, or two-thirds of the 2026 total. Electrolysis is expected to supply the remaining 0.4 million tonnes. The figures show that gas-based production will continue to underpin near-term volumes even as governments and companies invest in electrolyzers powered by lower-carbon electricity.
China leads capacity while Europe leads investment
Total electrolyzer capacity reached 4 GW in 2025 and could rise to 6.5 GW in 2026, the IEA forecast indicates. Much of the new equipment is expected to be built and commissioned in Europe. This expansion would add 2.5 GW in one year, increasing the potential supply of hydrogen produced from electricity.
The geographic distribution of overall low-carbon hydrogen capacity is different. China is expected to hold more than 60% of the global total, while Europe will account for 20%. Europe and China are set to lead hydrogen production through electrolysis, whereas the United States will lead output linked to the processing of oil and natural gas.
Investment is more concentrated in Europe than capacity. Europe is projected to represent 45% of capital expenditure, compared with 25% for China. Cumulative investment in new capacity is expected to exceed $10 billion in 2026, up from $6.6 billion in 2025. The gap between investment and installed-capacity shares may reflect differences in project costs, technologies and development conditions, though the source provides no project-level breakdown.
Storage remains a constraint on demand
The current forecast places global low-carbon hydrogen production at 4.3 million tonnes by 2030. Actual output could be higher if stronger demand supports additional projects, but vc.ru identifies limitations in hydrogen storage systems as a constraint. Storage performance and cost remain important for producers and users that need to balance intermittent electricity generation with continuous industrial demand.
The publication highlights hydrogen batteries and titanium-based components as possible areas of development. Titanium can be used in bipolar plates that keep hydrogen and oxygen flows separate. Because direct exposure to hydrogen can affect the metal, a carbon-based coating may be applied to improve corrosion resistance and electrical performance.
Titanium alloys with iron are also presented as a potential hydrogen-binding material. The described production route combines melting in induction furnaces, mechanochemical processing and a nickel catalytic shell on a graphene-like support. These applications remain prospective rather than part of the IEA’s central production forecast.
According to vc.ru, broader adoption of titanium-based solutions could help raise low-carbon hydrogen output to 5.5-6 million tonnes by 2030. The publication estimates that this could create a titanium market of 20,000-25,000 tonnes per year with an expansion horizon of at least 30 years. For hydrogen developers and titanium producers, that scenario depends on storage technologies progressing from technical potential to commercially scalable deployment.