Global gold jewelry demand falls 21% as Italian exports decline

High gold prices curb jewelry purchases

Global demand for gold jewelry fell 21% in the first half of 2026, extending the 18% contraction recorded in 2025, according to an Intesa Sanpaolo analysis presented at Vicenzaoro September with Confindustria Federorafi. The decline was particularly severe in the Middle East, a major market for gold jewelry by both volume and value.

Intesa Sanpaolo identified the elevated price of gold as the main factor behind the downturn. Gold reached record highs at the beginning of 2026 and remained exceptionally expensive despite subsequent adjustments. Demand for the metal as a safe-haven investment during periods of geopolitical tension and financial-market uncertainty has supported prices, but it has also raised input costs for jewelry manufacturers and retail prices for consumers.

Costs are expected to remain above 2025 levels

The assessment presented in Vicenza indicated that gold prices could moderate in the coming years but would remain well above their 2025 averages. For jewelry producers, that prospect means continued pressure on working capital, procurement costs and margins. Companies must decide how much of the increase to pass on through prices and how far to adjust product weights, collections and assortments.

The global contraction also affects refiners, component suppliers, wholesalers and retailers. Lower physical demand can reduce production volumes even when the monetary value of inventories remains high. Markets that traditionally absorb large quantities of jewelry therefore remain critical to the outlook for the entire supply chain.

Italian output returns to its 2019 level

Italy’s gold and jewelry industry is slowing after several years of expansion. Intesa Sanpaolo reported a decline in sector revenue during the first half of 2026, although the source material did not provide the percentage. Turnover nevertheless remained 50% above its 2019 level, showing that the current correction follows a prolonged period of growth rather than a complete reversal of the post-pandemic expansion.

The contraction in production was more pronounced, bringing output back to its 2019 level. Falling volumes and higher raw-material costs are placing simultaneous pressure on manufacturers. This combination is particularly relevant for Italy’s specialized jewelry districts, which compete through design, craftsmanship and access to international markets while carrying the financing cost of expensive gold inventories.

Exports fall overall but recover in the United States

Italian exports of gold jewelry totaled €4.4 billion in the first five months of 2026, down 15% from the same period of 2025. Exports of all wearable jewelry, including products made from silver and plated metals, declined 13.9%, indicating that weaker conditions were not confined to high-value gold pieces.

The aggregate result was heavily affected by Turkey, whose imports had surged in 2024 and created a demanding comparison base. Excluding Turkey, Italian jewelry exports would have increased 15%. Shipments to the United States, a key destination for Italian producers, rose 29%. The divergence suggests that the downturn is uneven: high gold prices are suppressing worldwide consumption, while demand for Italian jewelry remains resilient in several markets. Producers and exporters will consequently need to manage lower global volumes while concentrating commercial resources on destinations that continue to accept premium products and higher prices.