Global corn trade shifts as Argentina expands China sales and import demand moves west
USDA data cited by Donya-e-Eqtesad show higher corn exports from the United States, Argentina and Canada alongside rising import demand in the European Union, Iraq, Jordan and Kenya. Argentina has also shipped a record volume to China, supported by the lowest quoted FOB price among four major origins.
Export supply rises as production edges lower
Global corn production is expected to decline slightly in the 2026/27 marketing year as smaller crops in the European Union and Kenya outweigh part of the increase from a record Canadian harvest. Yet the production dip is not translating into weaker trade. USDA figures presented by Donya-e-Eqtesad show export forecasts rising for Argentina, Canada and the United States, while import requirements increase across several markets.
In USDA's July 2026 assessment, US corn exports were raised from 80 million to 81 million tonnes. Argentina's forecast increased from 38 million to 40 million tonnes, while Canada's climbed from 1.9 million to 3 million tonnes. These revisions indicate that export availability is expanding among several suppliers even as aggregate global output softens.
Demand is also shifting geographically. The European Union's import forecast rose from 19.5 million to 22.5 million tonnes. Iraq's estimate increased from 1.1 million to 1.4 million tonnes, Jordan's from 750,000 tonnes to 1.1 million tonnes and Kenya's from 200,000 tonnes to 700,000 tonnes. The figures point to stronger buying needs in Europe, the Middle East and East Africa.
Argentina secures record corn sales to China
Argentina recorded its highest corn exports to China to date, shipping more than 600,000 tonnes by the end of June 2026, according to USDA data cited by Donya-e-Eqtesad. The flow suggests that China is widening its supplier base rather than relying only on its established origins.
The shift comes despite a weaker overall Chinese import outlook. China's 2026/27 corn import forecast was cut by 1 million tonnes, from 6 million to 5 million tonnes. Over a longer period, its imports fell from 18.7 million tonnes in 2022/23 to an estimated 6 million tonnes in the earlier 2026/27 projection cited by the publication. Higher exports from Russia, Ukraine and the European Union could nevertheless help keep global flows active as Chinese demand declines.
Argentina's price advantage helps explain its gains. Export offers were reported at $207 per tonne FOB for Argentine corn, compared with $219 for the United States, $222 for Brazil and $224 for Ukraine. The discount makes Argentina attractive to price-sensitive buyers, but USDA cautioned that abundant Brazilian supply, China-US trade negotiations and the possibility of lower Chinese import demand could affect future sales.
Middle Eastern import dependence remains high
The rise in Iraqi and Jordanian forecasts reinforces the Middle East's growing role in the international corn market. Importers in the region will face a broader choice of origins as supplies increase in the United States, Argentina and Canada, but procurement decisions will continue to depend on freight costs, product quality, delivery reliability and access to individual markets.
Iran presents a different five-year trajectory from China. Its corn imports rose from 6.7 million tonnes in 2022/23 to 9.5 million tonnes and have remained at that level for the past two years, according to the figures reported by Donya-e-Eqtesad. The country therefore remains dependent on international supply for part of the needs of its livestock and poultry industries.
For importers, expanding export capacity and competition between origins may create opportunities to diversify procurement. At the same time, China's changing purchasing pattern could redirect cargoes and alter availability for other buyers. The outlook is consequently shaped less by an outright shortage than by price competition, weather volatility, geopolitical risks and the continuing redistribution of trade routes.
