Global coal consumption set to reach record 8.94 billion tonnes in 2026
The IEA expects global coal consumption to rise 1.2% to a record 8.94 billion tonnes in 2026, reversing its earlier forecast for a decline. Higher gas prices and electricity demand are supporting coal use, particularly in China, India and Southeast Asia, even as its share of power generation falls.
Higher gas prices reverse the outlook
Global coal consumption is heading for another record in 2026 as higher natural gas prices, growing electricity demand and weather-related pressure on energy systems support demand. According to the International Energy Agency forecast reported by ms-aktuell.de, consumption is expected to increase 1.2% to 8.94 billion tonnes. The IEA had still anticipated a slight decline at the end of 2025.
The projected increase follows a record 8.84 billion tonnes consumed in 2025, 0.3% more than a year earlier. Disruption in Middle Eastern energy markets has particularly affected liquefied natural gas. Coal shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are limited, but restrictions on LNG trade have raised gas prices and made coal-fired generation more economical in countries that operate both types of power plant.
Power generation accounts for around two-thirds of global coal consumption. Worldwide electricity demand is forecast to grow 3.6% in 2026, driven by industry, air conditioning, electric vehicles and data centres. Data-centre electricity use rose about 17%, or roughly 70 terawatt-hours, in 2025, compared with an increase of around 800 terawatt-hours in total global power demand.
China and India drive Asian demand
China remains the centre of the global coal market. The IEA puts its 2025 consumption at 4.956 billion tonnes and expects an increase of about 1% to roughly 5 billion tonnes in 2026. Coal-fired power generation fell in 2025 for the first time in years as wind and solar capacity met much of the additional electricity requirement, but coal plants continue to support security of supply.
High oil prices are also encouraging Chinese production of coal-based chemicals, allowing domestic coal to replace part of the country’s imported oil requirement. Data centres add another source of demand: the IEA models their global electricity consumption rising from around 485 terawatt-hours in 2025 to about 950 terawatt-hours in 2030, with coal expected to supply a substantial part of the near-term increase in China.
India is forecast to record faster growth. After consumption declined around 1% to 1.299 billion tonnes in 2025, the IEA expects it to rise 4.2% to 1.353 billion tonnes in 2026. Expanding electricity use and higher production of steel, cement and other energy-intensive goods are the main drivers.
Demand is also rising across Southeast Asia, where Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines have growing electricity needs and large existing coal fleets. Vietnam is expected to increase coal imports in 2026 because electricity demand is expanding faster than domestic production. These Asian trends contrast with longer-term declines in Japan and parts of Europe.
Coal loses share despite higher tonnage
The European Union is expected to consume around 276 million tonnes in 2026. The decline continues, although expensive gas has slowed it and prompted the IEA to raise its forecasts for countries including Germany and Poland. Eurostat reported that EU consumption in 2025 fell to historical lows of about 107 million tonnes of hard coal and 184 million tonnes of lignite.
Coal and lignite supplied 9.2% of the EU’s gross electricity generation in 2025, down from more than one-third in 1990. In Germany, coal-fired output declined 5.1% year on year to 30.5 billion kilowatt-hours in the first quarter of 2026, while its generation share fell from 26.9% to 24.1%. Renewable output increased 13.9% to 67.5 billion kilowatt-hours and reached a 53.3% share.
The IEA nevertheless expects renewables to overtake coal-fired generation globally in 2026. Coal’s share of global power output is forecast to fall from 34% in 2025 to around 27% by 2030, but demand from steelmaking, cement and chemicals will slow the decline in total consumption. Australian thermal coal with an energy content of 6,000 kilocalories per kilogram traded at around $136 per tonne at the end of August 2026, compared with an August average near $131 and peaks above $400 during the 2022 energy crisis. The IEA’s base case projects a 0.4% decline in global coal demand to about 8.91 billion tonnes in 2027, with the outcome depending partly on how quickly LNG supply stabilises.
