Global cherry crop rebounds to record 5.44 million tons as US output falls 22%

Global production heads for a record

Global cherry production is forecast to rebound by 17% from the 2025/26 season to a record 5.44 million metric tons in 2026/27, according to a September report from the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service cited by FreshFruitPortal.com. Recovering orchards, favorable weather and expanding planted area are lifting output in major producing countries, with Türkiye and Chile leading the gains and China continuing to grow.

The expansion contrasts sharply with the outlook for the United States. US production is forecast at 317,000 metric tons, down 22% year on year. Sweet cherry output is expected to decline 18% to 277,000 metric tons, while tart cherry production is projected to fall 38% to 40,000 metric tons.

Weather cuts US supply and exports

Frost in Washington and the wider Pacific Northwest reduced sweet cherry supplies, while late freezes damaged tart cherry crops in Michigan and Utah. California began its season strongly after an early warm spring, but rainfall during harvest abruptly shortened the campaign and severely affected fruit quality. Unseasonably low temperatures also weighed on production in Washington.

Lower availability is expected to reduce fresh US cherry exports by 24% to 62,000 metric tons. Shipments had already followed an uneven pattern: exports increased 44% year on year in April and May, then fell 32% in June and July. The USDA assessment said the production decline followed the previous season’s bumper crop in Washington.

Despite the volume contraction, the United States is expected to retain its established position in its principal destinations. Canada receives 33% of US cherry exports, followed by Taiwan with 15%, South Korea with 14%, China and Hong Kong with 10%, and Mexico with 9%. The USDA expects lower shipments in 2026/27 to have limited effect on US market share because American fruit faces little competing imported supply in these markets during its season, apart from domestic production in Canada and China.

Chile and Türkiye add exportable fruit

Chile is forecast to produce 727,000 metric tons in 2026/27, an increase of 15%. Its exports are projected to rise by 80,000 metric tons to 650,000 metric tons. The USDA linked the gain to favorable weather and expanding acreage, reinforcing Chile’s position as the world’s leading cherry exporter.

Türkiye is expected to record the largest rebound among major producers. Its crop is forecast to approach 1 million metric tons, nearly 250% above the previous freeze-damaged season and a national record. The additional production will increase exportable supply, but high domestic prices and competition in Europe are expected to keep exports below the 2023/24 peak of 84,000 metric tons.

China remains central to the balance of the global market as both a major grower and the largest demand center. Chinese production is forecast at slightly more than 1 million metric tons, while consumption is expected to reach almost 2 million metric tons. Imports are projected to increase by at least 12% to 560,000 metric tons, supported by strong demand for Southern Hemisphere cherries. That growth gives Chilean exporters a larger outlet even as the reduced US crop tightens Northern Hemisphere availability.