Glencore revisits South African coal growth plans as rail capacity recovers

Rail recovery revives expansion options

Glencore is reassessing coal growth projects in South Africa that had been slowed by persistent logistics constraints, according to SMM. Improving performance at Transnet Freight Rail is easing a bottleneck that had limited producers’ ability to move coal from inland mines to export terminals.

The review does not amount to a final investment decision. Glencore has not formally approved the projects, and the company has disclosed neither additional production volumes nor start-up dates. The current assessment therefore signals renewed interest in expansion rather than a confirmed increase in supply.

For South African miners, rail availability is central to project economics. Additional mine capacity has limited commercial value if producers cannot reliably transport the resulting output to port. A sustained improvement in the rail network could allow Glencore and other operators to reconsider projects that were uneconomic or impractical under tighter logistics conditions.

Richards Bay shipments rebound

Coal exports through Richards Bay Coal Terminal increased from 47.21 million tonnes in 2023 to 57.66 million tonnes in 2025, SMM reported. Shipments reached around 30 million tonnes in the first half of 2026, putting full-year exports on a possible path toward 60–62 million tonnes.

The export recovery has been supported by improvements in rail infrastructure and the addition of 105 Class 23E locomotives. These measures have eased transportation bottlenecks, although current shipment levels remain below the rail capacity Glencore expects to become available over the longer term.

Glencore expects rail coal capacity to recover toward approximately 70 million tonnes per year over the next four to five years. If achieved and supported by dependable terminal operations, that level would give producers more room to raise export sales and could strengthen South Africa’s position as a supplier to the seaborne thermal coal market.

Asian demand supports project economics

SMM said tight energy conditions in Asia are supporting thermal coal prices. The combination of firmer prices and better rail performance is improving the economics of potential South African coal developments, giving producers a stronger basis for reviewing capital spending that had been deferred because of logistics risks.

Any market impact will depend on whether Glencore and other producers proceed with expansion and how quickly new mine output can enter the system. No production additions or commissioning schedules have been announced, leaving the timing and scale of any supply response uncertain.

If rail improvements continue and stalled projects return, South Africa could add more thermal coal to seaborne markets over the medium term. That would improve export opportunities for domestic producers and trading companies, while potentially increasing supply-side pressure on international thermal coal prices. Until projects receive formal approval, however, the clearest change is the recovery in logistics capacity rather than a guaranteed expansion in mine production.