German window and exterior-door demand set for moderate growth through 2027

Window sales forecast to reach 13.35 million units

Germany’s market for windows and exterior doors is expected to expand moderately in 2026 and 2027, supported primarily by renovation activity rather than a broad recovery in new construction. According to building-services publication GEB, window demand is forecast to rise by 2.2% in 2026 and another 1.5% in 2027.

Window sales are projected to increase from 12.88 million window units in 2025 to 13.16 million in 2026 and 13.35 million in 2027. One window unit in the market survey represents an element measuring 1.3 by 1.3 metres. Exterior-door demand is forecast to rise from 1.141 million units in 2025 to 1.169 million in 2026, an increase of 2.5%, and to 1.183 million in 2027, up a further 1.2%.

Heinze GmbH compiles the market figures. The report is published by the Window and Facade Association, known as VFF, together with the Federal Association of Flat Glass, the Lock and Hardware Industry Association and the pro-K association for durable plastic products and reusable systems. The forecast incorporates current construction and financial-market developments.

Renovation remains the volume anchor

Residential construction is forecast to account for 9.33 million window units in 2026, up 2.2%, before reaching 9.43 million in 2027, an increase of 1.1%. Across building categories, new construction is expected to edge up from 4.00 million units in 2025 to 4.01 million in 2026 and 4.09 million in 2027. That corresponds to growth of only 0.2% in 2026, followed by 2.1% in 2027.

Renovation is the larger segment, with window volumes forecast at 9.15 million units in 2026, up 3.0%, and 9.26 million in 2027, up 1.2%. The contrast is particularly pronounced in nonresidential buildings: new-build window demand is expected to fall by 2.7% in 2026, while renovation volumes rise by 5.3%. The figures point to replacement demand in existing buildings as the principal stabiliser for manufacturers of frames, flat glass, locks and fittings.

The exterior-door market shows a similar reliance on residential and renovation demand. Residential sales are forecast to reach 924,000 doors in 2026, up 2.3%, and 932,000 in 2027, up 0.8%. Across building categories, new-build demand rises from 243,000 units in 2025 to 246,000 in 2026 and 251,000 in 2027. Renovation demand is projected at 924,000 doors in 2026 and 932,000 in 2027. Nonresidential exterior-door demand is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027, mainly due to renovation.

Interest rates and public investment shape the outlook

Mortgage rates remain a central risk because higher borrowing costs could reduce the share of planned projects that proceed. Geopolitical risks, possible energy-price increases, higher product costs and inflation could also weaken the cautiously positive forecast. VFF managing director Frank Lange said greater policy certainty and reliable support conditions were needed for investors and private builders, while office and administrative construction remained a particular concern.

The associations expect additional support in 2027 from the number of working days and Germany’s special investment fund, especially in public construction. Investment in administrative buildings, schools and hospitals could therefore be important for suppliers exposed to the weak nonresidential market. BF managing director Jochen Grönegräs cautioned that the improvement did not yet constitute a genuine upswing, although the stronger contribution from renovation offered an industrial as well as a climate-policy opportunity.

The full window and exterior-door market report is scheduled for publication in mid-October 2026. VFF plans to present an updated 2026 assessment and a further 2027 forecast at its Statistics & Market conference on 27 April 2027, taking account of economic conditions, interest rates, inflation and regulatory and subsidy policies.