Gas-Fired Electricity Exports Raised Greek Wholesale Costs, Green Tank Says

Export gains came with higher domestic prices

Greece’s electricity exports have made a clearly positive contribution to the country’s power trade balance, but the use of additional fossil gas to supply those exports has increased costs in the domestic market, according to an analysis by Green Tank.

The study, titled “Electricity exports from fossil gas: the cost for the Greek market and the climate,” examined the effect of export-oriented gas generation on Greece’s Day-Ahead Market, or DAM. Green Tank said DAM prices are strongly correlated with retail electricity prices, meaning the additional generation cost ultimately reaches the bills paid by Greek households and businesses.

The analysis found that gas accounted for an average 35.8% of Greece’s domestic power mix during hours when the country was a net electricity exporter. In a scenario where gas-fired plants had operated only to meet domestic demand, generation from fossil gas could have been 6.56 TWh, or 11.4%, lower than the actual level.

Wholesale burden exceeded the trade benefit

Green Tank estimated that the additional gas use required for electricity exports raised the average DAM price by €6.23/MWh. The resulting burden on Greece’s wholesale power market reached €914.4 million.

That cost exceeded the cumulative benefit generated by the positive electricity trade balance. Based on complete data available from the Hellenic Statistical Authority, the trade benefit amounted to €821.2 million for the period through June 2026. The comparison suggests that stronger net export revenues did not translate into an equivalent overall gain for the domestic economy once the wholesale price impact was included.

The additional gas generation also carried a climate cost. Green Tank calculated that the hypothetical reduction in gas-fired output would have lowered Greece’s carbon footprint by 2.6 million tonnes of CO2. The findings therefore connect export strategy with both domestic price formation and emissions, rather than treating the electricity trade balance as a standalone measure of performance.

Renewable exports offered a different outcome

Green Tank also modelled a scenario in which the same quantity of exported electricity was supplied by additional renewable generation instead of gas. Under that assumption, the average DAM price would have fallen by a further €7.24/MWh, producing a €1.065 billion benefit for the domestic wholesale market.

The renewable scenario would still have maintained a positive contribution from electricity trade. Green Tank estimated a cumulative trade-balance benefit of €605.4 million through June 2026. Although this figure was below the benefit associated with the observed trade balance, it was accompanied by lower wholesale prices rather than an additional domestic cost.

Nikos Mantzaris, Green Tank’s lead policy analyst, said continued expansion of export-oriented fossil-gas capacity in the name of strengthening Greece’s role in Southeast European energy security was neither economically nor environmentally sustainable. He argued that further development of renewable energy and storage could preserve a positive trade balance while reducing DAM prices for the economy and consumers.

The analysis places the composition of exported electricity at the centre of Greece’s regional energy strategy. For generators, traders and large power users, the central issue is not simply whether the country exports electricity, but which technologies set the marginal domestic price while those exports are being produced.