French melon crop forecast cut to 321,400 tonnes after heat and drought
France is forecast to produce 321,400 tonnes of melons in 2026, down 2% from 2025, after heatwaves and drought reduced yields. Imports also fell by 5% in January-July, while volatile summer prices reflected shifting supply and demand.
Heat and drought reduce the production outlook
France is expected to produce 321,400 tonnes of melons in 2026, a decline of 2% from 2025, according to figures reported by FreshPlaza from the September 1 forecast issued by Agreste. The estimate was revised down from the projection made in early July after several heatwaves and persistent dry weather affected the crop.
Planted area in mainland France, excluding the overseas departments and regions, is estimated at 13,634 hectares. That is almost unchanged from the previous year but 5% above the average for the 2021-2025 seasons. With acreage broadly stable, the fall in production points mainly to weaker yields rather than a contraction in planting.
Crops first faced a very wet spring and then an exceptionally dry summer. Agreste reported disrupted pollination, significant water stress in fields with limited irrigation access and sunburn damage to fruit. Open-field output is forecast to fall by 3%, a steeper decline than the national crop as a whole.
An early campaign gives way to smaller harvests
The 2026 season began particularly early in Midi-Pyrénées and Languedoc-Roussillon. However, harvest volumes in July and August were significantly below both their 2025 levels and the five-year average. Water restrictions in some producing areas further limited irrigation during periods of heat and low rainfall.
Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur was an exception to the national trend, with regional output expected to rise by 3% year on year. Greenhouse production there proved more resilient because growers could use climate control and irrigation. The contrast highlights the greater exposure of open-field producers and farms with restricted water access to extreme summer conditions.
The earlier start did not translate into consistently strong commercial conditions. From late June, prices were adjusted sharply following several scheduled melon promotions in what was then a balanced market. From mid-July, a heavier market prompted further reductions to move increased supply, while softer demand put additional pressure on quotations near the end of the month.
Prices weaken in August as imports decline
Despite the late-July pressure, average prices for July remained 15% above July 2025 and 2% above the 2021-2025 average for that month. The imbalance continued in early August. A gradual reduction in supply subsequently supported trade and allowed prices to recover, although Agreste described demand as erratic.
Across August, prices were still 2% below their August 2025 level and 6% below the 2021-2025 August average. The figures show that a smaller crop does not automatically produce higher prices when harvest timing, retail promotions and uneven consumption create temporary surpluses. The early season may also have shifted more volume into earlier marketing windows before availability tightened.
France imported 99,500 tonnes of melons between January and July 2026, down 5% from the same period of the previous campaign. Imports accounted for 31% of the French market, compared with 33% a year earlier. Over the same period, exports rose by 6% to 22,800 tonnes, although FreshPlaza noted that this volume included a significant share of re-exports.
The country’s net trade deficit in melons narrowed by 8% to 76,700 tonnes. Even with lower imports and a smaller domestic crop forecast, the August price data provide no evidence of a broad shortage. For growers and traders, the main issue is the alignment of harvest volumes with demand: weather damage is reducing total output, but short periods of concentrated supply can still depress prices.
