French grain forecast cut by 4.1 million tonnes after heatwave

Heatwave removes nearly 9 million tonnes from grain outlook

A four-week heatwave has reduced the estimated grain harvest in the European Union and the United Kingdom by almost 9 million tonnes, according to the latest analysis from Coceral, the European association representing grain traders. Jutarnji list reports that the lost production of wheat, barley, corn and other cereals is worth about €2.1 billion at national agricultural prices, equivalent to roughly 5% of the sector’s projected production value in 2025.

The damage occurred as high temperatures reached wheat during the critical grain-filling period in central and southern France, southern Germany, Austria, Poland and Hungary. The effect on barley varies by type because earlier varieties had largely developed before temperatures rose. Western Europe was about 3°C warmer than the 1991–2020 average, while temperatures peaked at 43°C in France and 40°C in Hungary.

French farmer Benoît Merlo, who raises cattle and grows grain in eastern France, told the Financial Times that he expected a yield loss of at least 50%. He said efforts over the past 10 years to adapt his farm to warmer and drier conditions were failing when temperatures remained above 38°C for weeks.

France and Hungary bear the largest losses

France accounts for almost half of the estimated European grain damage. The country’s forecast was lowered by 4.1 million tonnes, worth about €891 million at current prices. Most of the reduction comes from corn: production is now expected at 9.4 million tonnes, down 3.4 million tonnes from the previous forecast and below the level recorded after the severe drought of 2022.

Hungary suffered the second-largest reduction, with its grain outlook cut by 2.4 million tonnes, valued at about €444 million. Spain lost 1.4 million tonnes, worth €276 million, while the reduction projected by German farmers is reported to be at roughly the same level. Hungarian producers face an additional challenge because grain purchase prices had already fallen before the harvest under pressure from cheaper Black Sea imports.

Trade flows and feed markets face pressure

In years of weaker yields, the EU becomes a net importer of arable crops. The production shortfall could therefore increase demand for supplies from countries including Ukraine and Brazil. France’s reduced wheat output could also limit the volume available for export to North and West African markets, where French grain is an established source of supply.

Lower cereal availability is also expected to raise livestock feed costs in the coming months. Higher market prices may partly offset French farmers’ lower production, but livestock businesses and grain buyers will face more expensive inputs. The balance will depend on the size of import requirements and the availability of competitively priced Black Sea and Brazilian crops.

Croatia illustrates longer-term production shifts

Croatian growers have faced high temperatures and abrupt weather changes for the past five years. Petar Pranjić, chairman of the Croatian Chamber of Agriculture’s arable farming committee, said corn now performs better farther north than in its former production heartlands of Slavonia and Baranja. He estimates that corn yields in northern areas are now twice those in eastern Croatia.

Autumn-sown wheat, barley, oats and rye can still produce good yields, but low purchase prices often make them unprofitable. Spring crops such as sugar beet and soybean are more exposed to unfavorable conditions and are becoming less common in Croatian fields. Irrigation is not a universal solution because some areas lack sufficient groundwater, leaving producers across Europe to manage greater yield risk alongside volatile prices and changing trade requirements.