French fresh tomato output to fall 4% in 2026 to 479,800 tonnes after record August prices

France's production of tomatoes for the fresh market is expected to fall to 479,800 tonnes in 2026, a decline of 4% both year on year and against the 2021-2025 average, according to forecasts dated 1 September from the agricultural statistics service Agreste, reported by FreshPlaza. The decline comes despite a slightly larger planted area than last year, and follows a campaign in which prices peaked in August, exceeding their August 2025 level by 43% and the 2021-2025 average for the month by 70%.

More area, weaker yields

National area devoted to fresh-market tomatoes is put at 2,798 hectares in 2026, up 1% year on year and 4% above the 2021-2025 average. The increase is more pronounced under glass and plastic, where area grows 3%. Expansion is strongest in the Centre-Ouest and Sud-Ouest basins, with gains of 15% and 6% respectively.

That additional area is not enough to offset falling yields. "National production of tomatoes for the fresh market is estimated at 479,800 tonnes in 2026, down 4% year on year and against the 2021-2025 average, because of yields affected by the high temperatures," Agreste states in its market note.

The contraction is sharpest in the Sud-Est basin, where output falls 14%. Regional outcomes diverge widely. In Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, the best-equipped protected systems — climate-controlled greenhouses, shading and drip irrigation — held up better against high temperatures, and regional production rises 2%. That gain partly offsets steep declines elsewhere in the same basin: down 38% in Rhône-Alpes and down 28% in Languedoc-Roussillon. In Brittany, greenhouse production also proved resilient, up 1%.

Disrupted pollination and crop losses

Beyond the headline volumes, repeated heat episodes upset the rhythm of harvesting. "The successive heatwaves generated strong irregularity in harvested tomato volumes," Agreste says.

Excessive temperatures disrupted pollination and caused significant flower abortion, with consequences for volumes available the following month. The heat also affected quality and size grading: deformation and skin scald led to crop losses.

Price path: June rebound, August peak

Commercially, the market was fairly dynamic in May, supported by demand. In early June supply became substantial while cooler weather curbed consumer interest in tomatoes, and prices turned lower. The picture changed from mid-June with a new heat wave: demand rebounded strongly while deliveries were more limited because of the effects of the late-May heat wave. June prices averaged 32% above the previous year and 42% above the 2021-2025 average.

In July, slower demand made the market more fluid. Quotations fell month on month but remained 10% above July 2025 and 19% above the five-year average.

Tension increased markedly in August. National supply was in deficit while a further heat episode supported sales. "Trade is lively and prices are sharply higher than in previous years," Agreste notes. Prices then stood 43% above their August 2025 level and 70% above the 2021-2025 average for the month.

Widening trade deficit

Between January and July 2026, French tomato exports reached 163,000 tonnes, including significant re-export volumes, a decline of 5% against the same period of 2025. Imports rose 4% over the same months to 351,000 tonnes. The resulting trade deficit in volume terms stands at 188,000 tonnes, up 14% year on year for the period.