French cereal exports set to weaken in 2026/27 as feed demand absorbs more wheat
FranceAgriMer expects weaker French soft wheat, barley and durum wheat exports in 2026/27 as smaller harvests, strong domestic feed demand and competition constrain shipments. Soft wheat closing stocks could reach 3.6 Mt, the highest level in more than 20 years.
Smaller wheat crop, but ample opening stocks
French cereal exports are expected to weaken in the 2026/27 marketing year as lower production, expanding domestic feed use and reduced competitiveness limit overseas sales. FranceAgriMer presented its first forecasts for French soft wheat, barley and durum wheat on 16 July, Terre-net reported. The agency cautioned that the balances rely on the first production estimates from SSP/Agreste and could change over the coming months.
French soft wheat production in 2026 is estimated to fall 4% from the previous year, leading to a similar decline in marketed collection to 29.6 Mt. A substantial opening stock cushions the reduction: total availability is forecast to decrease only 1% year on year and remain above the five-year average.
Domestic use is expected to rise, particularly among compound-feed manufacturers. French maize area has contracted by 20%, while heatwaves threaten yields. FranceAgriMer said the French maize harvest could be historically low, with a similar situation across Europe. Higher maize prices would make soft wheat more competitive in animal rations, lifting feed use to 5 Mt from 4.7 Mt in the preceding season and a five-year average of 4.6 Mt.
Black Sea competition limits non-EU sales
Soft wheat exports to other EU countries are forecast at 7.4 Mt, below 7.9 Mt in 2025/26 but above the five-year average of 7.1 Mt. French feed wheat should remain competitive within the European market as livestock producers seek alternatives to maize.
Shipments outside the EU are expected to decline to 7 Mt, down 0.4 Mt from 2025/26 and 1 Mt below the five-year average. France faces competition from Black Sea suppliers and a better harvest in Morocco, one of its main customers. These pressures could leave soft wheat closing stocks at 3.6 Mt, their highest level in more than 20 years.
The outlook remains sensitive to the war between Russia and Ukraine. Abundant Black Sea production would normally weigh on French competitiveness, but renewed fighting or disruption around the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea could constrain Russian and Ukrainian shipments. FranceAgriMer said that scenario might create opportunities for French wheat in Mediterranean destinations, including Egypt.
Barley and durum shipments also retreat
French barley collection is projected at 9.4 Mt, around 650,000 tonnes less than in the previous season. Feed use in France is expected to rise to 1.2 Mt from slightly under 1.1 Mt, while exports to the EU could jump to 2.8 Mt. Non-EU exports, however, are forecast to fall to 2.6 Mt from 3.9 Mt, reflecting weaker competitiveness, particularly in Saudi Arabia. Shipments to China are expected to hold. Closing stocks are put at 1.9 Mt, equivalent to more than two months of consumption, although FranceAgriMer warned that spring barley yields may prove lower than current official assumptions.
Durum wheat has the tightest balance. Collection is forecast to decline 18% to 1 Mt, alongside an estimated production fall of about 17%. EU exports could drop to 560,000 tonnes from 750,000 tonnes as French durum loses competitiveness and Italy expects a better harvest. Non-EU shipments are projected at 70,000 tonnes, down from 160,000 tonnes amid stronger Canadian competition. Closing stocks of 114,000 tonnes would cover barely one month of consumption, leaving the market sensitive to changes in output and demand.
