Finland’s pork export losses may reach €40 million in 2027 after ASF outbreak
Finland’s pork sector could lose about €40 million in 2027 if sales blocked by African swine fever restrictions cannot be redirected. China, Japan and South Africa have restricted Finnish pork, while South Korea and New Zealand have accepted supplies from outside the infected zone.
Losses could rise sharply in 2027
Finland’s pork industry could lose approximately €40 million in 2027 if exports suspended after the country’s first African swine fever outbreak cannot be redirected to new markets, according to estimates by the Natural Resources Institute Finland, known as Luke, reported by Delovoy Peterburg. For August through December 2026, Luke expects sector losses of up to €13 million.
More than €7 million of the 2026 estimate relates to unsold meat and more than €4 million to other parts of pig carcasses. China, Japan and South Africa imposed restrictions on Finnish pork following the outbreak. Luke said trade within the European Union had not yet been affected, although the consequences could be substantial for individual Finnish farms.
Wild-boar cases disrupt a trade-oriented industry
African swine fever was first detected in Finland on 30 July 2026 in dead wild boars found in Virolahti in the southeast, according to the Finnish Food Authority, Ruokavirasto. The EU reference laboratory subsequently confirmed the findings. The authority created an infected zone and a more tightly controlled core area, while later cases prompted an extension of the zone westward.
The Finnish Food and Drink Industries’ Federation, ETL, said Finland produced approximately 164 million kilograms of pork and consumed around 156 million kilograms in 2025. It exported about 23 million kilograms of pork worth roughly €74 million. Pork exports outside the EU were worth approximately €57 million, while overseas sales of pork and other pig-carcass parts together reached around €94 million, including about €76 million shipped beyond the bloc.
Regional access limits the scale of displacement
The initial discovery interrupted exports outside the EU because many certificates required Finland to be free of African swine fever. However, the official position is no longer a uniform prohibition across every non-EU destination. Ruokavirasto said South Korea and New Zealand would accept pork and pork products originating outside the infected zone. Canada also recognized Finland’s regionalization from 12 August 2026, subject to product, slaughter-date and permit conditions.
The commercial problem is concentrated in markets for cuts and offal that Finnish processors developed specifically for Asian customers. ETL identified South Korea, China, New Zealand, Poland and Japan as the largest destinations for pork and other carcass parts in 2025, with respective export values of €22.6 million, €18.1 million, €14.6 million, €7.0 million and €6.5 million. Atria estimated an annual direct earnings impact of approximately €7 million from lost and redirected exports and a €4–5 million negative effect on 2026 EBIT, assuming sales to China and Japan stop while exports to South Korea continue. Delovoy Peterburg reported that restoring disease-free status and resuming offal exports to China would require at least one year. The timetable nevertheless depends on containing the virus, surveillance results and each importing country’s recognition of Finnish regional controls.
