Fifteen countries set to generate 76% of global pharmaceutical growth through 2030

Developed markets concentrate spending growth

Fifteen countries are expected to generate 76% of global pharmaceutical market growth through 2030, according to a study by healthcare data company IQVIA cited by Greek business publication OT. The group comprises the United States and 14 other developed markets, concentrating most of the expansion in an industry where innovation, patient access and pricing policies increasingly determine the value of demand.

Global medicine spending before discounts and rebates is forecast to exceed $2.6 trillion by 2030, rising at an annual rate of 5%-8%. The projection reflects not only greater treatment volumes but also a shift toward more expensive therapies as a broader range of high-cost medicines becomes available to patients.

The spending forecast is therefore substantially stronger than the underlying increase in medicine use. IQVIA expects use to grow at an average rate of 1.9% when adjusted for population and 2.7% without that adjustment. Population growth remains an important contributor, but the changing mix of products and the adoption of innovative treatments will have a larger effect on the value of the market.

Four therapeutic areas lead demand

Oncology, immunology, diabetes and obesity are identified as the four therapeutic categories that will shape pharmaceutical growth through the end of the decade. Their importance is particularly pronounced in developed markets, where health systems have greater capacity to fund innovative treatments and where access to higher-priced products is expanding.

Worldwide medicine consumption is projected to reach 4 trillion daily doses by 2030. The increase indicates that more patients will receive treatment, although growth will vary considerably by region. It also creates demand across pharmaceutical manufacturing, active ingredients, formulation, packaging and temperature-controlled distribution, while increasing pressure on payers to manage the cost of new therapies.

Pricing will remain central to the outlook. The IQVIA study points to continuing international debate over health policy and trade, alongside changes in the global market and in United States drug-pricing policies. Decisions on reimbursement, access and pricing in individual countries could affect hundreds of millions of patients and determine how quickly innovative medicines move from approval into routine use.

China grows faster as mature regions stabilize

China has been the fastest-growing pharmaceutical market since 2020 and is expected to maintain that momentum, with medicine use almost doubling by 2030. This trajectory distinguishes China from higher-income regions and gives manufacturers and suppliers a major source of volume growth, although the report does not provide a country-level spending forecast.

North America, Western Europe and Japan are expected to expand more slowly. Their mature healthcare systems are moving toward stabilization, limiting volume growth even as innovative and more expensive therapies support spending. For producers and investors, the contrast means that future performance will depend on balancing access to rapid volume expansion in China with high-value specialty demand in established markets.

The forecasts also underline the growing influence of national policy. Countries are redesigning the rules governing access, use and pricing, while established trends in disease treatment and the adoption of innovation continue to lift medicine consumption. Pharmaceutical companies, ingredient suppliers and distributors will consequently face a market in which growth is concentrated geographically and therapeutically rather than spread evenly across products and regions.