European sugar output could fall to its lowest since 1988/89 after drought
European sugar production could fall to its lowest level since 1988/89 in the 2026/27 season as drought and extreme heat reduce beet yields. Tereos expects the crop to decline by more than 20% year on year, while shrinking acreage and stocks could support prices and increase demand for imports, including from Ukraine.
Drought reverses a promising start
European sugar production could fall to its lowest level since the 1988/89 season after prolonged drought and repeated heatwaves damaged the 2026/27 sugar beet crop. French producer Tereos estimates that beet output will decline by more than 20% from the previous year, with losses of 50–60% in some regions. The expected harvest is also about 15% below the average of the past five seasons.
Conditions had initially been favorable. Planting was completed successfully, and more than 50% of the planned area had been covered by the beginning of summer. From mid-June, however, prolonged dry weather, high temperatures and successive heatwaves restricted crop development in major farming regions. France, one of Europe’s leading beet producers, has reported the most serious problems, although Tereos says adverse conditions have affected several European countries.
The damage comes on top of a longer decline in the industry’s production base. Sugar beet acreage has contracted in France and elsewhere in Europe during the past three years. Farmers therefore entered the drought with less land available for cultivation, limiting the sector’s ability to compensate for weaker yields by harvesting a larger area.
Factories shorten processing campaigns
The reduced volume and lower quality of beet are forcing processors to adjust their operations. According to information reported by TSN, companies are postponing factory start dates to allow crops more time to develop and improve sugar extraction. The average processing campaign is expected to last about 100 days, compared with 130 days in the previous season.
Some plants are also lowering processing rates to accommodate poorer-quality raw material and handle all available beet. The smaller crop will affect co-products as well as refined sugar: TSN reported a critical shortage of beet pulp, which is supplied to farmers as animal feed.
These adjustments underline the pressure on factory utilization. A shorter campaign spreads fixed costs over less raw material, while slower throughput can further constrain output. Acreage cannot be restored quickly enough to change the current harvest, and any recovery in the next season would still depend on farmers’ planting decisions and more favorable weather.
Lower stocks support European prices
The supply setback follows two years of substantial declines in European sugar prices. Tereos says prices have begun to recover as production and finished-product stocks decrease. Higher global sugar prices, combined with lower European inventories, could provide further support to the regional market.
If production reaches its lowest level in 38 years, European buyers may need more imported sugar. That would increase competition for available supplies and affect procurement costs for food processors, wholesalers and other industrial users. The sources provide no specific production tonnage, stock estimate or price forecast, leaving the eventual size of the deficit dependent on final yields and extraction rates.
Ukraine faces an export opportunity and domestic risk
Ukraine could supply part of the additional European demand, but its own beet area is also contracting. Ukrtsukor data cited by UA.News and OBOZ.UA show that Ukrainian farmers planted about 162,100 hectares in 2026, down 18% from the previous year and the lowest area since 1991.
TSN also reported that war-related risks, disrupted logistics and higher transport costs continue to pressure Ukraine’s sugar industry. Ukrtsukor chair Yana Kavushevska has estimated that the sector could lose up to 200,000 tonnes of output. Export routes redirected through Romania’s Port of Constanța add costs and weaken exporters’ competitiveness.
Stronger European import demand could consequently offer Ukrainian mills and traders new sales opportunities while tightening supply at home. The balance will depend on the size of Ukraine’s harvest, logistics capacity and the volumes committed to foreign buyers. For domestic food processors and consumers, a smaller crop combined with competition from European purchasers raises the risk of further price increases.
