European pork market seeks a floor as supply tightens unevenly

European pork prices approach a possible floor

Europe’s pork market is beginning to regain some balance after several weeks of sharp price declines, although conditions differ substantially between producing countries. AgroDigital reports that Germany and Belgium are showing signs of stabilization, while contracting pig availability continues to shape prices in Spain and France.

The emerging floor in livestock prices does not mean that pressure has disappeared across the supply chain. Europe still has abundant meat supplies, buyers remain cautious and processing margins are weak. Lower slaughter activity and falling carcass weights are nevertheless restricting fresh supply, reducing the scope for further declines in pig prices.

German slaughter falls as Spanish weights retreat

German slaughter activity has dropped to an especially low level of about 670,000 pigs, while weights continue to decline. Surpluses persist, but AgroDigital says conditions are improving gradually and the meat market appears to have reached a floor. This could bring greater price stability over the coming weeks.

Spain is experiencing a particularly sharp contraction in weights. Average weights fell by 850 grams last week and have lost almost 7 kg since mid-May. That reduction in supply is limiting the fall in pig prices despite a severely weakened meat market, where individual cuts have declined by between 5 and 10 cents. The downward movement in the pig price continues, but it has been limited to 1 cent because of the scarcity of domestic supply.

Belgium has stabilized following the previous week’s steep price fall. Farmers accelerated marketings ahead of the expected decline, lifting activity by an average of 7% over the past five weeks. Weights consequently dropped by more than 3 kg in four weeks and are now at their lowest level since 2023. Despite the improved balance, margins remain heavily depressed throughout the chain.

French processors compete for fewer pigs

In France, price increases have moderated, but auctions at the Marché du Porc Français continue to reveal a shortage of pigs and strong competition among slaughterhouses. Buyers are acting cautiously because Europe has plentiful meat supplies, keeping increases limited even as the average price advances during auction sessions.

Uniporc data cited by AgroDigital show that French slaughter volumes last week were comparable with 2025. Weights, however, are still declining, whereas they had already begun their seasonal recovery at the same point last year. The gap between the two years has reached 1.6 kg, indicating a meaningful reduction in French pig availability.

US exports rise while China watches its herd

Outside Europe, the US spot market remains stable, while cutout values are showing improvement led by ham and belly. Slaughter was reduced by the July 4 holiday but remained above the comparable week last year. The outlook is supported by a stable breeding herd and exports that have increased by 5% since the beginning of the year, particularly to Asia.

China’s recent recovery in pig prices has revived discussion of a possible change in the market cycle. The first effects of a prolonged reduction in the breeding herd may be starting to affect availability. Analysts remain cautious because consumption is still too weak to create genuine market tightness. The pace of supply contraction will therefore be central to determining China’s future import requirements and the potential outlet available to overseas pork suppliers.