European Pig Market Moves Toward Balance While France's Animal Shortage Persists

Europe's pig market is edging toward a better balance between supply and demand as temperatures fall, but the adjustment remains uneven across the main producing countries, according to agrodigital.com. Germany and Belgium are regaining room to manoeuvre, Spain is still weighed down by historically low carcass weights, and France has strung together several weeks of acute tension caused by a shortage of available animals.

Germany and Belgium regain room to manoeuvre

German slaughterings reached their highest level since the end of June, while weights recovered 700 grams over one month as the heat eased, agrodigital.com reports. Supply is therefore increasing gradually, but it is being absorbed without difficulty by demand that has become equally more active. Analysts cited in the report do not expect any price change in the short term, which means the current stability could last several weeks.

Belgium is following a similar path. Availability is growing progressively now that the high temperatures are over, although weights remain around 1.6 kg below year-earlier levels. After several weeks in which buyers competed hard to secure supply, the tension on the offer side is beginning to ease.

Spain: weights at historic lows, ASF watch continues

Spanish weights remain at historically reduced levels. At 84 kg they stand 4.2 kg below the levels recorded in 2025, following a decline of almost 11 kg in three months. A progressive recovery is expected as temperatures retreat, but the shortfall is already reshaping slaughterhouse operations: some plants are still running four days a week because there are not enough animals with sufficient weight.

On the health front, no new case of African swine fever has been detected in Catalonia for a second consecutive week. Exports to third countries remain unchanged for the time being, meaning the trade situation created by the outbreak has not yet moved.

France's shortage now looks structural

France recorded the maximum increase on the Marché du Porc Français for a second consecutive week. The pattern repeated itself: buyers opened with an offer of 3 cents more, but competition quickly pushed the price above 5 cents. Slaughter volumes were relatively stable last week, according to Uniporc data cited by agrodigital.com, a sign that the availability of animals remains scarce.

Despite heavier animals, producers still appear able to hold pigs back in search of better prices. The return of cooler temperatures has delivered an average gain of 500 grams, but that advance does not correct the supply deficit measured in volume, which is increasingly perceived as structural rather than seasonal. That distinction matters for buyers on both sides of the French border, because a deficit that survives the normalisation of weights cannot be resolved simply by waiting for autumn.

United States and China move in opposite directions

Outside Europe, the US market is extending its decline. Slaughterhouses are finding it easier to source the animals they need, while slaughter numbers are beginning their seasonal upturn. Cold storage inventories are adding to the pressure, particularly on hams. In the short term, rising supply could keep the market under pressure despite favourable export prospects to Mexico.

China is showing a change of dynamic. After several weeks under pressure, a slowdown in marketings from the large farms has allowed prices to recover slightly. The start of the school year and falling temperatures are also feeding expectations of better consumption. The open question is whether more moderate marketings can rebalance the market before the seasonal pick-up in consumption arrives.