European gas prices rise above €56/MWh as LNG disruption raises storage concerns
European benchmark gas prices exceeded €56/MWh after starting February near €41/MWh, a rise of more than 36%. Disrupted LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz and slower storage injections are increasing supply and cost risks for Europe, including Romania.
TTF climbs more than 36%
European benchmark natural gas prices rose above €56/MWh on Friday, extending a sharp increase that has changed the cost outlook for utilities, industrial consumers and storage operators. HotNews reported that Dutch TTF quotations reached €56.14/MWh on Friday morning, compared with approximately €41/MWh at the beginning of February. That represents an increase of more than 36% since the start of the month.
The rise has been continuous through February and is part of a broader energy-market reaction to renewed conflict involving Iran. According to HotNews, European gas prices have gained more than 70% since the war began. Oil has also become more expensive: Brent traded at $85.06 per barrel on Friday, up 1%, while US benchmark WTI advanced 1.2% to $79.88. Brent futures had exceeded $86 per barrel earlier in the week.
Hormuz disruption tightens the LNG market
The immediate concern for gas buyers is the disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a route that handled approximately 20% of global liquefied natural gas deliveries. Iranian attacks have removed 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity, according to the source material. Qatar's ability to restore exports through the strait is therefore the principal uncertainty facing the global LNG market.
Even before the latest escalation between the United States and Iran, market estimates indicated that Qatar could require several weeks to resume production and deliveries, without accounting for any additional damage to capacity. A prolonged interruption would intensify competition for available LNG cargoes. European buyers would have to secure supply while simultaneously rebuilding inventories, exposing utilities and energy-intensive industries to higher procurement costs.
Europe faces a slower storage refill
European Union gas storage facilities are approximately 52% full. The Wall Street Journal reported that the pace of injection is below both last year's rate and the ten-year average for the summer period. Europe has already passed the midpoint of its storage-refilling season, which runs from April 1 to November 1, leaving approximately three and a half months to rebuild reserves.
Natasha Fielding, director of gas and LNG pricing at Argus, said Europe was on course to enter winter with its lowest gas reserve since the 2022 energy crisis. Storage matters because inventories support winter heating demand and provide protection against interruptions in pipeline or LNG supply. Recognising difficult market conditions, the European Union has relaxed its storage rules. Member states may now aim to reach at least 80% of capacity by the beginning of November instead of the standard 90% target.
Romania holds a small storage advantage
Romania's storage facilities were 54% full on Friday, according to data analysed by HotNews. That is slightly above the EU average, but it does not isolate the country from the regional increase in wholesale prices. Romanian suppliers and industrial consumers operate within the wider European market, where TTF quotations influence procurement costs and expectations for future contracts.
The immediate effect on households will depend on national pricing arrangements and the timing of supplier purchases. For industry, however, a sustained TTF price above €56/MWh would raise the cost base for gas-intensive production and increase uncertainty around winter budgets. Romania's two-percentage-point storage lead over the EU average offers a limited buffer, while the path of prices will depend heavily on Qatar's export recovery, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and Europe's ability to accelerate injections before November.