FEFAC warns of 5 million tonne EU soymeal shortfall as EUDR deadline approaches
European feed industry association FEFAC estimates the EU could face a soybean meal shortfall of at least 5 million tonnes in 2026/27, equal to around 20% of consumption. The association puts the combined additional cost for soybean, rapeseed and sunflower meal at about €1.40 billion, and is calling for emergency measures before the EU Deforestation Regulation applies on 30 December 2026.
The European feed manufacturers' federation FEFAC has published its fourth update on feed supply chain disruption risks and on the economic consequences the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) could have for soy supplies destined for animal feed in 2027. According to the assessment reported by agronews.gr, three pressures are converging at the same time: severe drought, disruption to trade through the Black Sea, and restrictions linked to the EUDR.
FEFAC estimates the potential shortfall in soybean meal (SBM) supply in the EU could reach at least 5 million tonnes in the 2026/2027 marketing year. That volume corresponds to roughly 20% of total EU soybean meal consumption, and the federation describes the scope for replacing it with other protein raw materials as particularly limited.
A €1.40 billion bill for the feed chain
FEFAC puts the direct additional cost of EUDR-compliant soy used in animal feed at up to €1.05 billion, calculated on total consumption of around 35 million tonnes. The effect does not stop at soybean meal. Because rapeseed meal (RSM) and sunflower meal (SFM) prices track soybean meal prices to a significant degree — around 65% — the federation expects a further €449 million to be added to the cost of those alternative protein raw materials. The total estimated economic impact on soybean meal, rapeseed meal and sunflower meal supply for the European feed and livestock sector is therefore about €1.40 billion.
On the basis of available market information, FEFAC calculates that this translates into a direct cost increase of roughly €40 per tonne of pigmeat and €15 per tonne of poultry meat. The federation expects the development to weigh further on the competitiveness of the European livestock sector.
Brazil's export corridors remain the open question
FEFAC's updated country- and origin-level assessment leaves one central question unresolved: whether Brazil can shift part of the soybean meal volumes destined for the EU from its northern export corridor to its southern one, and so limit the expected shortfall. The federation notes that persistent storage capacity constraints may significantly narrow that option.
FEFAC President Nicolas Coudry-Mesny expressed “deep concern” about the EU's ability to secure the raw materials needed for feed production. According to the statement, the effects of prolonged drought, combined with the closure or disruption of key maritime trade corridors such as the Black Sea, are creating significantly tight market conditions through the end of the year. At the same time, the approaching application of the EUDR — which is already affecting EU soy purchases on world markets ahead of 30 December 2026 — is intensifying pressure and raising the risk of serious disruption to core feed supply chains. FEFAC is calling on the EU institutions to take emergency measures to secure feed availability and to prevent an economically unviable situation for the European livestock sector in early 2027.
The domestic protein route is slower than the deadline
The supply question feeds directly into the debate on European plant protein production, which thessalikigi.gr links to the future of EU livestock farming, since the availability of sufficient, good-quality and economically viable feed determines the competitiveness of milk and meat production. The European Commission's protein action plan points in the same direction, emphasising higher domestic output, diversified supply sources and better use of agricultural and industrial resources. The key figures are:
- The European Union produces around 67 million tonnes of plant protein, while total use for feed, food and industrial applications approaches 80 million tonnes.
- Livestock farming absorbs roughly 74 million tonnes of protein a year.
- In 2025, only 25.8% of the protein from oilseeds and protein crops used in animal feed originated in the EU; the target is to reach 35% by 2035.
- Soybean and soybean meal imports in 2024-2025 corresponded to around 13.4 million tonnes of crude protein, with Brazil, Argentina and the United States as the main sources of supply.
Broadening the production base can run through a wider set of crop options. Peas, faba beans, lupins, alfalfa, soy and other oilseeds can strengthen domestic protein feed output depending on soil and climate conditions, while adding legumes to rotations also supports crop diversification and soil fertility. Processing has a role as well: oilseed crushing yields protein meals and cakes alongside oils, and suitable food industry by-products can return to the chain through animal nutrition. Ruminants, for their part, convert pasture vegetation and fibrous forage into milk and meat. For Greece, thessalikigi.gr argues, expanding protein crops requires linking crop production to the real needs of livestock units, with cooperation between growers, cooperatives, processors and livestock farmers, consistent quality and a viable selling price.
