EU apple crop forecast at nine-year low as heat brings harvest forward
EU apple production is forecast to fall 16% to 9.5 million tonnes in 2026, the smallest crop in nine years. Italy is expected to limit its decline to 2%, while record heat has accelerated harvesting and affected fruit development across Europe.
European production drops below 10 million tonnes
European Union apple production is forecast at 9.5 million tonnes in 2026, down 16% from 2025 and 14% below the average of the previous three years, according to figures presented at the Prognosfruit conference and reported by myfruit.it. It would be the EU’s smallest apple crop in nine years and only the second harvest below 10 million tonnes in the past 16 years.
Spring frost, prolonged heatwaves, drought and hail have reduced production potential in several countries. Growers are also confronting greater pressure from aphids, other pathogens and plant diseases, while the available means of controlling them have become insufficient in some regions. Harvesting is expected to begin earlier in most producing countries, and average fruit sizes are likely to be slightly smaller than last year.
Poland and France lead the decline
Poland’s crop is estimated at 2.7 million tonnes, 30% below 2025. Severe frost struck orchards during flowering in April after winter temperatures fell as low as -30 °C. More than half of the Polish harvest is expected to go to processing, making the reduction particularly relevant for industrial apple buyers as well as the fresh market.
France is forecast to produce about 1.2 million tonnes, a decrease of 24%, following a contraction in planted area, high summer temperatures and pressure from aphids and pathogens. German output is expected to fall 11% to around 1 million tonnes. Belgium and the Netherlands face projected declines of 25% and 17%, respectively, alongside substantial carry-over stocks, low prices and unfavorable weather.
Spain is one of the exceptions, with production forecast to rise 8% after a season without particularly damaging weather events, although summer heat is affecting fruit size. Greece is expected to record a 53% recovery. Existing fruit in European cold stores should help cover the opening phase of the new season, but Prognosfruit participants expect a lighter market once those stocks are absorbed.
Italy retains supply capacity despite heat
Italy’s crop is forecast at 2,269,106 tonnes, only 2% below 2025. Output is expected to fall 2% in South Tyrol and 9% in Trentino, while Emilia-Romagna is projected to grow 5%, Friuli-Venezia Giulia 9%, and Piedmont and Veneto 2% each. Italian organic production is estimated at 171,333 tonnes, down 2% and equivalent to about 7.6% of national output. Record heat has nevertheless forced an early start to harvesting in parts of Italy and slowed fruit growth after temperatures rose above average from mid-June.
At varietal level, EU production of Golden Delicious is forecast to decline 11% and Gala 9%, while Fuji is broadly stable with a 1% increase. New club varieties are expected to exceed a record 690,000 tonnes, up 9%. In Italy, Golden Delicious output is projected at 610,570 tonnes, down 8%, while club varieties rise 7% to a record 346,602 tonnes. The smaller European crop could improve market conditions for Italian suppliers, but continuity will depend on cold-storage management, fruit quality and the industry’s ability to protect orchards from increasingly volatile weather and disease pressure.
