Energy daily: coal hits record 8.85 bn tonnes as Russia redirects exports to Asia

Coal demand hits a record before its projected peak

Global coal demand in 2025 is on track to edge about 0.5% above 2024 to reach 8.85 billion tonnes, a new all-time high, according to the International Energy Agency's annual coal report cited by Le Figaro. IEA energy markets director Keisuke Sadamori said consumption is heading for a "new historic record" but has reached a plateau, with demand expected to slip back toward its 2023 level by 2030 as renewables, nuclear and a wave of LNG compete for market share.

Coal's share of electricity generation has fallen from 41% in 2013 to around 34% in 2025, the lowest in the IEA's records. Power generation, two-thirds of total coal use, should decline from 2026, while industrial demand stays more resilient. China absorbs 56% of world demand and held steady in 2025, while the United States alone added 37 million tonnes of the 40-million-tonne global increase as higher gas prices and the Trump administration's pro-fossil stance slowed plant closures. EU demand fell just 3%, against average drops of 18% in 2023 and 2024. India and Southeast Asia are set to drive the remaining growth, with India adding more than 200 million tonnes by 2030.

Russia: coal exports climb as the home fuel market stays strained

Russia increased coal exports by 4% in 2025 to 203 million tonnes and now supplies close to 100% of China's anthracite imports, with Baltic ports raising loadings bound for Asian buyers. The redirection eastward continues as European purchases shrink.

Domestically the market is tight. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak called the fuel situation strained amid a summer demand peak and unplanned refinery repairs, with motor-fuel demand up by a third. The government has banned exports of diesel, gasoils and marine fuel by producers until 31 July 2026, and President Vladimir Putin signed Tax Code amendments — effective for relations arising from 1 June — to support refiners and domestic supply. Belarusian gasoline has traded at 140,000 rubles per tonne on the St. Petersburg exchange.

Colombia leans on fossil power before El Niño

Colombia has burned up to 65% more coal and gas over five months ahead of an expected El Niño, which the Ideam weather institute puts at an 82% probability, with thermoelectric plants consuming 43 million Mbtu since January, according to grid operator XM. Hyundai Corporation has secured a contract to build a coal-fired power plant in the country, even as President Gustavo Petro declared that "the global coal market is ending" and reiterated his refusal to keep exporting the mineral to Israel.

Hydrogen and pellets: shifting policy and price signals

Sentiment in Europe's hydrogen market has moved from mood to action, according to Wood Mackenzie via Quantum Commodity Intelligence, while South Korea has altered the opening volume for its hydrogen power bidding market. In solid biomass, wood pellet prices in Germany are about 30% higher year-on-year, and Spanish producers expect output of 630,000 tonnes by the end of 2026 against national demand of around 700,000 tonnes. In France, Picardie Granulation is investing €40 million in its first pellet plant in the Somme, due on stream in the first half of 2025 with about 30 local jobs.