Ecuador's Rice Industry Targets 60,000 Tonnes in Exports for 2026 as Colombian Market Reopens

Colombian border reopening drives export push

Ecuador's rice industry expects to export 60,000 tonnes of milled rice by the end of September 2026, as the reopening of the Colombian market drives sales, according to Juan Pablo Zúñiga, president of the Corporación de Industriales Arroceros del Ecuador (Corpcom), cited by Forbes Ecuador. Through July 2026, Ecuador shipped 23,792 metric tonnes of milled rice abroad, with 72% purchased by Colombia and 26% by Peru, according to the Sistema de Información Pública Agropecuaria (SIPA) of the Ministry of Economic and Productive Development.

“Through August, exports were around 45,000 tonnes. For September, we project an additional 15,000, and with that, I understand, shipments will close. The priority will always be covering food sovereignty,” Zúñiga said. Once the 60,000-tonne threshold is reached, the industry's priority will shift to preserving inventories for domestic consumption.

Lower yields and a volatile cross-border market

The caution reflects lower production expected this year and the risk that weather conditions affect upcoming cycles. High temperatures have affected spike germination and reduced yields, Corpcom said. The national average, usually around 5.7 tonnes per hectare, is expected at 5 to 5.2 tonnes this year.

Ecuador is not a permanent rice exporter, Zúñiga noted, but ships surpluses when trade conditions are favorable; Colombia has been its natural market for close to three decades. That dependence exposes the sector to Colombia's own production cycles. In 2025, Colombia harvested enough to supply its domestic market and reduced its use of the US rice import quota under its free trade agreement; Ecuador's rice exports that year reached 52,870 tonnes of milled grain, per SIPA, but stocks carried over into 2026 and tariff restrictions halted shipments to Colombia during the first half of the year.

Zúñiga estimates Ecuador lost between 50,000 and 60,000 tonnes of potential exports during that period. The land border reopened on July 20, reactivating shipments; more than 90% of Ecuador's rice exports move through the Ipiales crossing. While exports to Colombia were suspended, the government bought about 20,000 tonnes of paddy rice, a measure that helped sustain prices for producers, Zúñiga said. That volume, equivalent to roughly 10,000 tonnes of milled rice, now forms part of a reserve stored through private-sector alliances, since the state lacks sufficient storage capacity; it covers about five days of national consumption, as Ecuador consumes around 2,100 tonnes of rice daily.

Global prices rebound amid El Niño concerns

After a period of low prices through 2025 and into mid-2026, international quotations began rising on concerns over El Niño and export restrictions from producer countries such as India. International prices have risen between 15% and 20% since June, according to the industry group. Global prices reached their highest level since February 2025, driven mainly by increases in Vietnamese prices, while gains in India were more moderate. The world rice price index tracked by Infoarroz, run by the Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), rose from 203.5 points in July to 205 points in August, and reached 209 points in early September.

Global supply remains elevated, however. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimate world white rice production at 564 million tonnes in 2025, projecting 553.2 million tonnes for 2026, while ending stocks are projected to rise from 211.7 million to 221.1 million tonnes.

Productivity and storage investment in focus

Producing rice in Ecuador costs 20% to 25% more than in Peru or Mercosur countries, Zúñiga said, pushing the sector to focus on raising yields rather than competing on cost alone. Producers and millers are applying Good Agricultural Practices, including certified seeds and soil analysis to identify higher-potential areas, with some large producers in Daule and Samborondón, in Guayas province, adopting precision-agriculture tools.

In a normal year Ecuador plants about 280,000 hectares across winter and summer cycles; this year the total was around 230,000 hectares — 100,000 in winter and 130,000 in summer. A third cycle of 30,000 to 40,000 hectares planned for December and January could be at risk if weather conditions worsen. White milled rice production in 2026 is estimated at about 800,000 tonnes, 70,000 to 80,000 tonnes below a normal year, Corpcom said. Against annual consumption of 780,000 tonnes, the exportable margin narrows: the sector calculates 20,000 to 30,000 tonnes of additional surplus for 2026, versus roughly 100,000 tonnes in an average year, plus accumulated 2025 inventory estimated at 40,000 to 50,000 tonnes.

• More than 300 rice mills operate in Ecuador, with installed capacity sufficient to process even a 20% to 30% increase over a normal year's production, per Corpcom estimates.
• The sector's main constraint is storage infrastructure, which requires long-term capital.
• Zúñiga estimates an investment of $40 million to $50 million would be needed to expand storage capacity.