Dutch apple harvest forecast to fall 18% as pear crop rises 10%
The Netherlands expects to harvest 195 million kilograms of apples in 2026, down 18% from last year, while pear production is forecast to rise 10% to 393 million kilograms. Declining apple acreage and lower Elstar and Jonagold volumes will shape fresh-fruit availability from late August.
Apple production falls after a strong 2025 crop
The Netherlands is expected to harvest 195 million kilograms of apples in 2026, an 18% decline from the previous year, according to industry estimates reported by Reformatorisch Dagblad. Pear production is moving in the opposite direction: GroentenFruit Huis and the Dutch Fruit Growers Organisation, known as NFO, forecast a 10% increase to 393 million kilograms.
The contrast follows an above-average Dutch apple harvest in 2025. The smaller 2026 crop therefore reflects both a high comparison base and continued contraction in the area planted with apple trees. For growers, packers and fresh-fruit traders, the result will be a tighter domestic apple supply alongside a substantially larger volume of pears.
The forecasts remain subject to conditions during the final weeks of the growing season. Water availability will be particularly important for final yields and fruit quality. The sector has also faced hail, dry periods and additional regulation, although the grower organisations remain positive about the coming season.
Elstar and Jonagold volumes decline
Elstar, by far the most widely grown apple variety in the Netherlands, is forecast to produce 77 million kilograms. That would be 21% below last year. The decline is significant for the Dutch market because Elstar accounts for about two-fifths of the total apple volume expected in 2026.
Jonagold, the country’s second-largest apple variety, is projected at 47 million kilograms, a decrease of 20%. Kanzi and Rode Boskoop follow as the other leading varieties by harvested volume, although the industry organisations did not provide crop figures for them.
Combined Elstar and Jonagold production is expected to reach 124 million kilograms. Their lower availability will be central to procurement planning for retailers, wholesalers and processors handling Dutch apples. Actual market effects will also depend on fruit size, grade and quality as the crop approaches harvest.
Orchard area shifts toward pears
The Dutch apple-growing area is continuing a long-term decline. It is set to contract by 3% this year to 4,902 hectares. Over the past decade, more than 2,000 hectares of apple orchards have disappeared, reducing the production base even before annual changes in yields are considered.
Pear acreage stands at 9,995 hectares in 2026 and has remained close to 10,000 hectares since 2018. The industry organisations said Dutch trees are carrying more pears on average than they did a year earlier. With pear acreage roughly twice the apple area, the expected crop of 393 million kilograms reinforces the crop’s larger role in Dutch fruit production.
The main apple and pear varieties from the new harvest are due to become available from late August. Until then, weather and water will determine how closely final output matches the forecasts. For market participants, the emerging balance is clear: fewer Dutch apples, particularly Elstar and Jonagold, and more pears entering the supply chain during the 2026 season.
