Drought and seasonal labour shortage cloud Morocco's olive campaign as forecasts are cut by up to 40%

Morocco's olive groves begin picking within days, and the 2026-2027 campaign opens with an unusually wide gap between what the trees carry and what will actually reach the mills. Persistent drought has thinned yields in rainfed plantations, seasonal pickers are scarce, and regional differences are sharp enough that two production basins a few dozen kilometres apart are facing different seasons.

An orchard of 1.2 million hectares

Olives are not a peripheral crop in Morocco. The tree covers roughly 1.2 million hectares, close to two thirds of the kingdom's tree-crop area, and supports a considerable share of the rural economy directly or indirectly. About 67% of national olive production is destined for crushing into oil, against 23% for the canning and table-olive segment. Most of the oil produced is absorbed by the domestic market, which is why the price per litre reaches well beyond the farming community.

Estimates already revised downward

Abundant winter and spring rains had restored moisture to soils worn down by successive drought years. In May, official estimates pointed to around 2 million tonnes of olives, a rise of 111% on the previous campaign. Then summer intervened, exposing non-irrigated groves in particular. Industry professionals have since cut their projections, citing a decline that could reach 40% for the 2026-2027 campaign. That figure is a sector forecast rather than a settled national assessment, but it measures the distance between flowering and the picking basket.

The issue is not only how much rain fell, but when. Flowering, fruit set and then oil accumulation in the fruit are each appointments the weather can keep or miss. Extreme temperatures add to the risk: a disturbed spring, an episode of Chergui wind or badly timed summer heat can compromise the formation of the olive. The fruit stays on the tree but loses calibre and, above all, oil potential.

Not every grove is having the same season. In the north, around Ouezzane, Chefchaouen and Ksar El Kebir, rainfall has fed optimism. In basins more exposed to water stress, prospects are far less generous. That gap will weigh on yields, because a tonne of olives is not an absolute unit: variety, maturity, water supply, harvest date and milling conditions deliver appreciably different oil volumes. Weighing the olives will not be enough; the mill has the final word.

The labour equation

The shortage of seasonal labour is no longer an accident of one bad year. Last winter an abundant harvest had to be extended in some regions for lack of hands. This season the problem returns with its invoice: more expensive day rates, crews that are harder to assemble, delayed picking and a growing temptation to mechanise.

The paradox deserves attention. Moroccan unemployment remains high, particularly among young people, while agriculture struggles to recruit at precisely the moment it needs workers most. Unemployment in Morocco is primarily urban and educated, whereas picking requires rural labour available for several consecutive weeks of physically demanding days. Rural exodus compounds it: yesterday's seasonal farm worker is now a delivery rider, a construction labourer or a street vendor — jobs that are also precarious, but rarely harder. A day of picking pays roughly what it always paid, while the cost of living has risen. When labour avoids a sector, that sector either raises day rates, which makes the harvest more expensive, or invests in machines. Either way the bill lands somewhere: on the selling price, or on rural employment itself.

Price and quality at the end of the chain

After the drought campaigns that pushed the litre to or near 100 dirhams, the return of an abundant crop allowed prices to ease. For the new campaign, some operators in the north are already raising the possibility of oil at around 35 dirhams per litre in producing zones. That is a local anticipation, not yet a national reality. Between the olive on the branch and the litre bought in Casablanca, Rabat or Marrakech sit picking, transport, milling, storage, intermediaries and distribution. If labour becomes scarcer and dearer, part of what a good harvest gains can be taken back by the cost of harvesting it.

Quality follows the same logic. Olives picked at the right stage of maturity and moved quickly to a milling unit favour a superior oil, while fruit left too long on the ground degrades. The labour shortage therefore meets the quality question directly: a delayed harvest ends up in the bottle.