Drought cuts Romanian corn area and exports despite projected output recovery
Romania’s corn crop is forecast at about 8 million tonnes, more than 10% above 2025 but still less than half the volumes harvested in 2018 and 2019. Recurring drought is pushing farmers toward autumn crops, sunflower and irrigation, while exports have fallen sharply from early-decade levels.
Recovery remains far below earlier harvests
Romania’s corn production is estimated at about 8 million tonnes this year, more than 10% above 2025, according to Newsweek Romania. The expected recovery follows a season in which the country escaped the worst effects of the European drought, but output remains less than half the volumes harvested in 2018 and 2019.
The improvement therefore does not reverse the longer contraction in Romania’s corn sector. Cultivated area, production and the surplus available to foreign buyers have all fallen from previous peaks. The pressure is strongest in the southeast, where repeated heat and water shortages have changed planting decisions.
Romanian corn exports ranged from 2.2 million to 4.7 million tonnes during 2023-2025, compared with more than 7 million tonnes around the start of the decade, European Commission data cited by Newsweek Romania and Capital show. The figures point to a smaller and more volatile supply base for traders and buyers that previously relied on Romania as a major European source.
Farmers switch crops as water risk rises
Cezar Gheorghe of consultancy AGRIColumn identified climate change as a major factor behind the reduction in corn acreage. He said repeated crop failures since 2020 had encouraged Romanian growers to favor autumn-sown crops, with smaller farms particularly exposed when drought arrives after an initially normal growing period.
Farmer Ștefan Moraru moved into sunflower because it requires less water than corn after suffering losses across all his crops in 2020. He also invested in irrigation, but the canal supplying his farms stopped operating in mid-July. His experience illustrates the limit of spending on pivots, pumps and pipes when the underlying water supply is unavailable.
Climate data reinforce that concern. Reuters Climate Monitor figures cited by Capital show that Romania’s average summer maximum temperatures over the past decade were 3 degrees Celsius above historical reference values. OECD data indicate that Romania and Hungary are performing worse than EU and OECD averages for soil-moisture anomalies, directly affecting farm productivity and water management.
Regional shortage may lift EU import demand
Hungary is facing a similar contraction. Its corn harvest is forecast at 2.5 million tonnes, less than one-third of its 2018 and 2019 production, and the government says the country will need to import corn this year despite its traditional role as an exporter. Some Hungarian family farms have closed or sought income outside agriculture, according to Tamas Petohazi, president of the Hungarian Grain Growers Association.
The European Commission forecast the EU corn harvest at 50.1 million tonnes at the end of August. That would be the bloc’s smallest crop in almost 20 years and about 20% below the average of the previous three years. Gabriel Antonio, a commodities analyst at Expana, estimated that EU corn imports could rise by 8%-9% in the 2026/2027 season if dry summers continue to reduce acreage or yields.
Longer-term projections suggest that volatility will remain a central commercial risk. The European Commission’s ten-year agricultural outlook estimates uncertainty in Eastern European corn yields at 18.7% by 2035, the highest level among the regions it monitors. For producers, crop choice increasingly depends on access to dependable water; for processors and traders, reduced Romanian and Hungarian surpluses mean greater exposure to imports and irregular regional supply.
