DRC cobalt quotas tighten supply outlook as market faces possible 2026 deficit

Cobalt rebounds from 2025 lows

Cobalt prices have recovered substantially after falling to around $21,000 per tonne in February 2025 under pressure from excess global supply, according to Agence Ecofin. The decline followed rapid growth in mine output and left producers facing weaker prices even as cobalt remained an important input for electric-vehicle batteries and other industrial applications.

The Democratic Republic of Congo, which accounts for about 75% of global cobalt production, responded by suspending exports from February 22. The measure prevented Congolese material from reaching the international market while stocks accumulated at mining companies inside the country. According to Le Monde, the European cobalt price subsequently rose by more than 70%, reaching $17.50 per pound in mid-March before easing to $16 per pound at the end of March.

Chinese refiners initially limited the price increase by drawing on inventories, Le Monde reported. The episode nevertheless demonstrated the influence available to Kinshasa because of the DRC’s dominant position in mined supply.

Export ban gives way to quotas

On September 21, the DRC announced that exports would resume under a quota system. The framework allowed 18,000 tonnes to leave the country between mid-October and the end of 2025, followed by annual limits of 96,600 tonnes in both 2026 and 2027, according to the national regulator ARECOMS.

The annual ceiling consists of an 87,000-tonne base allocation and a strategic pool of 9,600 tonnes controlled by ARECOMS. Argus reported that the permitted 2026 volume is equal to about 49% of the 199,000 tonnes of cobalt contained in hydroxide exported by the DRC in the preceding year. Darton Commodities compared the ceiling with the country’s record production of 220,000 tonnes in 2024 and concluded that less than half of that volume would be available for export.

The restrictions therefore affect more than the timing of shipments. They limit the amount of Congolese cobalt that can formally reach refiners and buyers, giving the government a mechanism to manage supply after the temporary ban ends.

Deficit risk shifts bargaining power

Project Blue expects the market to move from surplus to deficit following the quota decision, with tighter availability supporting prices in the short term. The firm said prices could exceed $20 per pound in 2026 and 2027. This forecast contrasts with earlier expectations that a durable market deficit might not emerge until around 2030.

The policy creates different pressures across the supply chain. Congolese producers gain support from higher prices but face restrictions on sales volumes and the accumulation of inventories. Refiners and battery-material buyers must manage reduced availability, while traders must account for quota allocations and shipment schedules. Consumers may also accelerate efforts to secure alternative supply or reduce cobalt use in battery chemistries.

The quotas have also exposed tensions between Kinshasa and major operators. Reuters reported that CMOC, the largest cobalt producer in the DRC through the Tenke Fungurume and Kisanfu mines, opposed the new arrangement. The company’s position highlights the conflict between a state seeking greater control over prices and producers seeking to market growing output.

For the DRC, the central test is whether restricted exports can sustain prices without encouraging substitution or investment in competing sources. For global battery and electric-vehicle supply chains, the immediate issue is clearer: a market that began 2025 with excess material may enter 2026 with substantially less Congolese cobalt available to international buyers.