Deoleo forecasts a 'new era' for the olive oil market as prices stabilize
Deoleo, the world's largest olive oil producer, told CNBC the 2022–2024 price crisis is over as rain restores supply. Spanish extra virgin oil has fallen to €3.9/kg from a €9.3/kg peak, while Italian oil remains about 50% higher.
Deoleo says the olive oil price crisis is over
Deoleo, the Spanish group that is the world's largest olive oil producer and owner of brands including Bertolli, Carapelli, Sasso, San Giorgio and Carbonell, has told CNBC that the extreme price volatility of recent years is coming to an end. In an email to the US broadcaster relayed by money.it, chief executive Valdés said the difficult market cycle of 2022 to 2024 was "definitively behind us" and that the sector is moving toward steadier supply and prices.
Rain returns and supply rebalances
Valdés attributed the group's optimism to the return of rainfall across the main producing countries, including Spain, which has made global supply more robust and balanced. He described 2022–2024 as one of the hardest periods in the sector's history, when severe drought and extreme heat waves across southern Europe compromised much of the olive harvest and sent prices sharply higher.
The price data bear this out. According to weekly figures from the European Commission cited by money.it, extra virgin olive oil in Spain recently traded at €3.9 per kilogram (about $4.47), continuing a steady decline since the start of the year. That compares with a record wholesale high of €9.3 per kilogram in January 2024, when drought on the Iberian Peninsula halved world production and drove costs up across Europe.
"This stabilization of supply ensures greater predictability along the value chain and allows us to forecast a more stable price environment," Valdés said, adding that lower and steadier prices are supporting a recovery in household demand worldwide.
US demand and packaging innovation
The chief executive singled out the United States as a key growth market. Falling prices have drawn a growing number of American consumers, across all income brackets, to add olive oil to their daily diet — a staple of the Mediterranean diet that had long been priced out for many. Deoleo also credited a packaging redesign with lifting demand, pointing to consumer-focused innovation as central to expanding its US market share.
Valdés said the main driver of the market is now innovation adapted to modern cooking habits, particularly among younger consumers and first-time buyers. He highlighted the growth of "functional" high-value packaging, noting that squeeze bottles already account for 40% of the category's overall growth in the United States. He cited the success of Bertolli's "Dress and Drizz" bottle.
Italy stays dearer than Spain
Prices have also eased in Italy, though less sharply. Where 100% Italian extra virgin olive oil traded steadily above €9.00–9.50 per kilogram between late 2024 and early 2025, the national average in the first half of 2026 fell to between €5.70 and €6.50 per kilogram depending on the market — a drop of 30–40% year on year, according to money.it.
Even so, Italian extra virgin olive oil still costs roughly 50% more than Spanish oil. The gap reflects Spain's strong recovery in production volumes, while Italy contends with more limited domestic supply, higher farming costs and the premium commercial value of the "Made in Italy" label.
Analysts remain more cautious than the company. Concerns persist over the wide swings in global supply from one season to the next, driven by climate change, water scarcity and pressure from pests and disease — factors that could yet unsettle the stability Deoleo is forecasting.
