Crude Nears $100 as Gulf Disruptions and Refinery Constraints Tighten Fuel Markets
Restricted Gulf shipments and lower global refinery throughput are putting crude and refined-fuel markets under pressure, with diesel particularly tight. Ukraine, which relies heavily on imported fuel, is already seeing higher pump prices and rising costs for logistics, agriculture and food distribution.
Supply pressure spreads from crude to diesel
Global oil and fuel markets are facing simultaneous constraints in production, refining and transportation. KP.ua reported that crude was trading near $100 a barrel, while the most acute pressure was affecting refined products, particularly diesel. The disruption differs from a conventional crude-price spike because shortages and delays have emerged across several stages of the supply chain.
Military activity in the Middle East has restricted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. According to KP.ua, oil shipments from Persian Gulf countries averaged about 13 million barrels per day in August, nearly half the prewar level. Exports of refined products and liquefied petroleum gas fell by almost 60%, reducing the volume available to international buyers.
Lower refinery throughput tightens middle distillates
Refining has become a second source of pressure. Global refinery throughput stood at 81.4 million barrels per day in August, 4.2 million barrels below the level recorded a year earlier, KP.ua reported. The resulting shortage is especially visible in middle distillates, including diesel, which is essential for freight transport, farming, construction and industry.
Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have added to the pressure on refined-product supply, although their role in crude pricing remains disputed. US President Donald Trump said the attacks had seriously damaged Russia and had also contributed to a substantial increase in diesel prices. Russia subsequently restricted petroleum-product exports, reducing the supply of Russian diesel to the global market.
Oksana Ishchuk, executive director of the Strategy XXI Centre for Global Studies, told Espreso that the attacks were not the principal cause of higher global crude prices. She identified events in the Persian Gulf as the main driver and noted that Ukraine’s strategy toward Russian refineries had not fundamentally changed during September, despite sharp oil-price fluctuations. She acknowledged an effect on diesel but said a 10% share was significant without being large enough to determine the market price on its own.
Crude retreats, but uncertainty remains
Oil prices eased as traders anticipated additional Gulf supplies following the restart of an important Saudi Arabian pipeline. On 23 September, Brent futures fell 1.1% to $98.16 a barrel, while WTI declined 1.67% to $89.01. Both contracts reached two-week lows, and Brent had closed below $100 on 22 September for the first time since 8 September.
The retreat in crude does not immediately remove pressure from refined fuels. Lower refinery throughput, reduced Gulf exports and constrained Russian diesel shipments continue to affect product availability. Traders are also pricing in the risk of further interruptions, which can keep diesel elevated even when crude benchmarks fall.
Ukraine faces higher logistics and food costs
Ukraine is particularly exposed because imports cover most domestic fuel demand. Petrol and diesel prices at Ukrainian filling stations had risen by 8–10% since the beginning of September, with diesel approaching 100 hryvnias per litre. KP.ua said prices were setting records in September 2026, although the market was not experiencing a physical nationwide shortage and fuel infrastructure continued to operate.
Serhiy Kuyun, director of the A-95 Consulting Group, said more than 300 filling stations had been attacked in frontline regions, but no locality had been left entirely without fuel. He warned that temporary disruptions remained possible because Russia continued to target fuel infrastructure. Kuyun advised motorists with safe storage facilities to hold enough fuel for two to three weeks, or about 60 litres, based on survey data showing that most Ukrainian drivers use up to 100 litres a month.
Higher fuel costs will feed unevenly into goods and services. Food is especially exposed because fuel is used to move raw materials, operate farm machinery and deliver finished products, including refrigerated goods. Vegetables, fruit, dairy products, meat and frozen food are among the sensitive categories. Businesses may absorb part of the increase through margins or route optimization: if fuel represents 10% of total cost and its price rises by 10%, the direct increase in cost is about 1%.
