Counterfeit Seed Reaches 15% of Russia's Seed Market as Import Quotas Bite

Counterfeit and falsified seed accounts for at least 15% of the Russian seed market, four percentage points more than two years ago, and the share kept growing in 2026, according to Zerno Online. The estimate was published by the agricultural outlet Oleoscope.

The report links the trend to structural imbalances in supplying farms with quality sowing material. Falsified seed cuts yields directly, raises unit production costs and puts farm profitability at risk. The damage becomes visible only during the season, once the sowing decision can no longer be reversed.

Import quotas drive the shadow trade

The main driver of illegal turnover is strict import quotas, the report says. Shipments from jurisdictions that Russia classifies as unfriendly have fallen 18%, and zero limits have been set for six crops:

• wheat
• soybean
• barley
• sunflower
• maize
• rapeseed

With legal material scarce, growers turn to unscrupulous suppliers who sell undocumented contraband or outright fakes. The six crops under zero limits cover the bulk of Russian field cropping, including both major oilseeds, so the quota regime touches the largest blocks of seed demand in the country.

A second factor is the sharp rise in prices for legal seed. Where certified material is both scarcer and more expensive, the price gap in favour of unverified product widens, and demand shifts toward suppliers that cannot document origin.

Import-dependent crops are the most exposed

Demand for seed of unknown origin is highest in crops with a large share of import dependence. The report cites 24.2% for sugar beet and less than 9% for potato. These are the segments where the pull toward informal channels is strongest, and where a supply shortfall translates fastest into purchases outside the certified system.

Falsification moves into oilseeds

In 2025, warning signals on falsified rapeseed seed were recorded for the first time. In February 2026, the Pustovoit All-Russian Research Institute of Oil Crops reported forged testing protocols for the identification of sunflower hybrids. In that case the documentation itself was falsified rather than only the product, which makes verification at the point of purchase harder for buyers who rely on paperwork to confirm a hybrid.

Sales channels and new capacity

In vegetable and melon growing, the main channel for illegal product is online platforms and marketplaces. Volumes there are split across large numbers of small transactions, and sellers operate without the documentation trail required in institutional supply contracts.

On the legal side, capacity continues to be added. A seed plant built by Malkom-Agro at a cost of 300 million rubles has started operating in the Tambov region.