Coking-coal prices could rise 20–30% by 2029 as Asian demand and costs increase

Supply deficit lifts the market in 2026

Global prices for the most sought-after grades of coking coal could rise by 20–30% from current levels by 2029, according to NEFT Research. Alexander Kotov, a consulting partner at the company, told TASS that the market would undergo a major change over the next three years as the geography of Asian demand shifts.

InvestFuture reported that the global metallurgical-coal market began strengthening in the second quarter of 2026 amid a supply deficit. One of the main triggers was a major accident at China’s Liushenyu mine in late May. The incident prompted widespread safety inspections in Shanxi province, removing as much as 20 million tonnes of fuel from the market. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and stronger purchases by India added support.

India set to become the leading importer

Kotov expects these factors to sustain prices at least through the end of 2026. Indian steelmakers are also expected to return to active purchases on the seaborne market in early autumn, after the monsoon season ends. That seasonal recovery would add demand to a market already dealing with reduced Chinese availability.

India is expected to become the largest importer of coking coal during 2027–2029. Its purchases could increase from 76 million tonnes last year to 89 million tonnes in 2027 and 104 million tonnes by 2030. The projected increase between last year’s level and 2030 is 28 million tonnes, making Indian procurement a central factor for miners, trading companies and steel producers planning long-term supply.

Imports are also expected to rise elsewhere in Southeast Asia, particularly in Vietnam. This creates a gradual shift in the center of seaborne demand toward South and Southeast Asia. Suppliers will have to align sales, shipping capacity and contract portfolios with markets where steelmaking raw-material requirements are expanding.

China and Europe temper the outlook

The forecast is not based on uniform global consumption growth. China is expected to reduce coking-coal use gradually as activity in its construction sector slows. Europe’s long-term demand is also likely to remain weak because of a downward trend in pig-iron production, according to Kotov. These declines could limit the effect of stronger Indian and Vietnamese purchases and create wider differences between regional markets.

NEFT Research also identifies higher production and logistics expenses as long-term price drivers. If mining, processing and transportation costs continue to increase, producers will require higher realized prices to maintain commercially viable supply. For steelmakers, the forecast points to greater pressure on raw-material procurement budgets even if total global consumption does not rise evenly.

The resulting market will depend on the balance between expanding Asian import demand and declining consumption in mature or slowing steel markets. The removal of up to 20 million tonnes following Chinese safety inspections illustrates how quickly operational disruptions can tighten availability. For buyers, diversified supply and freight planning will become more important; for producers, India’s rise toward 104 million tonnes of imports by 2030 offers the clearest source of incremental demand identified in the forecast.