Coffee futures rebound from three-month low as US and China extend Busan trade truce
Coffee futures rebounded from a three-month low on 23 September, with London robusta for November 2026 up 57 dollars at 3,317 dollars per tonne and New York arabica for December up 3.6 cents at 275.90 cents per pound. Certified arabica stocks remain near a 27-year low at 254,480 bags. The same day, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington and Beijing would extend the Busan trade truce to 10 January.
Funds cover shorts after a three-week selloff
Coffee futures rebounded from a three-month low on Wednesday, 23 September, and closed sharply higher. Technical buying supported the market after three weeks of heavy selling pushed prices into deeply oversold territory, prompting funds to buy back short positions, according to Reuters.
Robusta on ICE Futures Europe in London settled higher: the November 2026 contract rose 57 dollars to 3,317 dollars per tonne and January 2027 gained 41 dollars at 3,290 dollars per tonne, on high volume. Arabica on ICE Futures US in New York also turned up: December 2026 added 3.6 cents at 275.90 cents per pound and March 2027 rose 3.45 cents to 268.15 cents per pound, on medium-to-high volume. Trading concentrated in the nearby months, a sign that investment fund money is returning to the market, Bao The gioi va Viet Nam reported.
Certified stocks stay near a 27-year low
As of 23 September, exchange-certified arabica inventories stood at 254,480 bags, up from the 27-year low of 217,646 bags a week earlier but far below the 643,341 bags held a year ago. Only about 18,000 bags are awaiting grading and certification. Prices had slipped to a three-month low on favourable crop prospects in Brazil and Vietnam, the two largest producers. Finland's Vaisala weather service said coming rains will improve soil moisture and support flowering, although the north of Brazil's coffee belt stays dry, while cherry development in Vietnam, the world's largest robusta producer, should remain favourable. Main flowering in Brazil has not yet begun, so firm forecasts for the next crop are premature, and dryness in Central America is a further concern. The 2026-2027 season is expected to bring recovering output and a large surplus that would rebuild global stocks, with the risk of a strong El Nino the main uncertainty.
Busan truce extended to 10 January
On 23 September, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the United States and China had agreed to extend the trade truce the two countries reached in Busan, South Korea, late last year. He told Fox News the Busan deal, due to expire on 10 November, would run to 10 January next year, giving both sides more time to weigh the next economic steps. In late October last year the two countries agreed to lower tariffs on each other's goods and remove other trade barriers after months of retaliatory measures, and Washington has since largely avoided moves that could damage bilateral trade.
Pepper exports rise, rice prices hold
Domestic coffee in Vietnam rose 1,000 dong to 92,000 dong per kilogram. Analysts cited by Bao The gioi va Viet Nam expect 90,000 to 92,000 dong per kilogram in the short term, arguing that global robusta supply is still tight and that demand in the EU and North America has not weakened.
Pepper trading was subdued: Dak Lak at 138,000 dong per kilogram, Dak Nong at 140,000 dong after a 500-dong fall, and Ba Ria-Vung Tau, Dong Nai and Binh Phuoc at 136,000 dong. Preliminary data from the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association show exports of 10,915 tonnes worth 70.0 million dollars in the first 15 days of September 2026, up 3.8% by volume from 10,514 tonnes in the same period of August. Asia took 5,741 tonnes, or 52.6% of the total, with China up 34.1% at 2,125 tonnes and the UAE down 42.1% at 570 tonnes. The Americas rose 44.2% to 3,111 tonnes, the United States up 62.4% at 2,905 tonnes, or 26.6% of exports. Europe fell 26.3% to 1,594 tonnes and Africa 13.8% to 469 tonnes.
Rice export prices were little changed, according to the Vietnam Food Association: Vietnamese 5% broken white rice at 423-427 dollars per tonne, Jasmine at 526-530 dollars and 5% broken fragrant rice at 440-445 dollars. Thai 5% broken remains the dearest among leading exporters at 477-481 dollars, ahead of Pakistan at 419-423 dollars, Indian white rice at 375-379 dollars and Indian parboiled at 377-381 dollars. In its August report the FAO raised its forecast for Myanmar and cited a very good main crop in Sri Lanka, offsetting small cuts for China and the Philippines and a larger one for the United States, where planted area fell to a multi-decade low. World rice output in 2026-2027 is now seen at 553.1 million tonnes milled, 1.9% below the revised 2025-2026 estimate, with consumption forecast at 559 million tonnes, up 0.5% year on year.
