Coal 2026 forum to assess muted market response to Hormuz Strait crisis

Newcastle price remains far below 2022 level

The crisis in the Hormuz Strait has not delivered substantial support to global coal markets. According to Rambler Finance, the average price of thermal coal at Newcastle, Australia, one of the Asia-Pacific region’s largest trading hubs, rose by only 19% in the first five months of 2026 to $127 per tonne. That level was almost three times lower than the 2022 average.

The modest increase indicates that disruption risks around a critical Middle Eastern shipping route have not outweighed the broader pressures on coal. Russian suppliers have faced an additional disadvantage: discounts left their actual selling prices below the Newcastle benchmark. The combination of normalized international prices and discounted sales continues to restrict margins for Russian miners and exporters.

Transport costs and Asian supply reshape the market

Several domestic and international factors are adding to the pressure. Higher Russian Railways tariffs have increased the cost of moving coal from mines to ports. China has reduced its dependence on imported coal, while higher production in China and India is raising questions about how much additional demand will remain available to seaborne suppliers. These trends are particularly important for Russian producers seeking to redirect volumes toward Asian markets.

Russia has also removed coal export quotas for every producing region except Kuzbass. The change comes as the industry evaluates whether eastern mines and transport routes can support a more profitable supply mix. Capacity on the Trans-Siberian Railway and Baikal-Amur Mainline remains central to that calculation because access to Far Eastern ports determines how much coal can reach customers in Asia.

Coking coal and eastern regions offer growth

There are nevertheless areas of expansion. Russian coking coal production increased by 2% in the first four months of 2026 to 35.5 million tonnes. Development of the Elga deposit contributed to the increase, and its operator set a monthly record in April for shipments to Far Eastern ports. The figures point to stronger prospects for higher-margin coal grades than for standard thermal coal.

Novosibirsk Region has also emerged as an unexpected industry growth center, combining higher output with expanding employment and rising wages. Sakhalin retains production growth potential because it is close to export markets and has a short overland delivery route. Together, these developments may shift more Russian output eastward and increase the share of higher-margin grades in national supply.

Moscow forum to focus on industry profitability

These issues will be discussed at the Coal 2026 forum in Moscow on September 24, 2026. The agenda includes production results for the first half of the year, the potential for stronger external demand, Russian export discounts and the consequences of the Middle East conflict. Participants will also assess what rising Chinese and Indian production means for global coal trade.

Domestic policy and infrastructure will form another major part of the discussion. The forum will consider expansion of the Trans-Siberian Railway and Baikal-Amur Mainline, Russian Railways tariffs, deferrals of mineral extraction tax and social insurance payments, and the wider anti-crisis program. For producers, traders and investors, the central question is whether better logistics, targeted support and a greater concentration on coking coal can restore profitability while global benchmark prices remain well below their 2022 peak.