Chinese chicken breast imports add pressure to Russian wholesale pork prices
Russian wholesale pork prices fell in the first half of 2026 as domestic pork production expanded and low-cost Chinese poultry imports increased. Producers’ position improved toward autumn after stronger summer demand and a planned slowdown in production growth.
Two sources of pressure on pork
Russian pork producers faced a difficult first half of 2026 as wholesale prices declined under the combined pressure of higher domestic output and growing imports of inexpensive poultry from China. Yury Kovalev, director general of the National Union of Pork Producers, identified the two factors in comments to URA.RU reported by Obshchestvennaya Sluzhba Novostey, or OSN.
The overlap matters because chicken and pork compete as raw materials for Russia’s meat-processing industry. Chinese suppliers primarily ship breast fillet, which processors can use in manufactured meat products. According to Kovalev, Chinese producers are prepared to sell this cut at relatively low prices. That gives processors a cheaper purchasing option and weakens demand for some domestically produced meat, while additional Russian pork production increases available supply at the same time.
OSN reported that profitability at pig-breeding businesses fell noticeably during the first half of the year. The publication did not provide a wholesale pork price, an import volume for 2026 or a specific profitability figure. The available information therefore establishes the direction of the market movement, but does not quantify the size of the decline across individual pork cuts or producers.
China held 30% of poultry imports
China accounted for 30% of Russia’s poultry imports in 2025, according to Kovalev, making it the country’s second-largest supplier after Belarus. The main Chinese product entering Russia was chicken breast fillet, and meat processors were its principal buyers. This product mix means the imports affect the business-to-business raw-material market more directly than the retail display case.
For processors, lower-priced breast meat can help contain input costs. For Russian poultry companies and pig producers, however, the same supply creates more competition in a market already receiving additional domestically produced pork. The effect can move across protein categories when industrial buyers compare ingredients by cost, availability and suitability for particular products.
The import share also shows that China had become a significant poultry supplier before the price pressure described in the first half of 2026. Belarus nevertheless remained the leading source. No figures in the source material show whether China’s share increased further during 2026, so the 30% figure should be read as the 2025 market position rather than a current-year estimate.
Conditions improved toward autumn
The situation began to improve by autumn, according to Kovalev. Stronger demand during the summer barbecue season supported the industry, while companies implemented a planned reduction in the pace of production growth. Together, those changes helped stabilize conditions for producers after the weaker first half.
Retail poultry prices followed a different trajectory from wholesale pork. Citing Rosstat, OSN reported that chicken meat cost 263.6 rubles per kilogram in August, up 15.8% from a year earlier. Turkey rose 15.1% to 645 rubles per kilogram. The figures cover different products and a different stage of the supply chain, so they do not contradict the reported decline in wholesale pork prices.
For pork producers, the central issue is whether slower output growth and seasonal demand can offset continued competition from low-cost poultry. Processors benefit from a broader choice of raw materials, while domestic livestock businesses face tighter pricing conditions. Future pressure will depend on production decisions in Russia and the scale and price of poultry shipments from China.
