China’s crop weather damage lifts Brazilian soy and corn prices

Heat and floods hit key producing regions

Simultaneous weather extremes in China are raising concerns about domestic supplies of corn, soybeans, cotton and rice. Notícias Agrícolas reports that historic flooding has affected northern and eastern regions since mid-July, while northwestern areas have experienced temperatures approaching 50°C. The damage could increase China’s need for imported agricultural commodities, particularly corn, sorghum and cotton.

Reuters reported that temperatures at 50 weather stations, mainly in Jilin, Liaoning and Xinjiang, matched or exceeded historical records between mid-July and late August. Jilin and Liaoning are major corn and soybean producers, while Xinjiang is central to cotton production. Prolonged heat accelerated crop maturity in some areas, and cotton losses could reach 5%.

Excess moisture threatens yields and quality

Henan, an important summer corn and soybean region, experienced extreme heat in July followed by heavy rain associated with the remnants of Typhoon Dolphin. Heilongjiang, China’s largest corn- and soybean-producing province, has faced repeated heavy rainfall and historic flooding since mid-July. Fields in Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning have also suffered from saturated soils and limited sunlight during an important period for yield formation.

Liu Jinlu, an agricultural researcher at Guoyuan Futures, told Reuters that prolonged heat during corn pollination on the North China Plain could reduce grain formation, while flooding threatens low-lying fields in the northeast. Excess moisture has also reduced the quality and protein content of Chinese soybeans, potentially weakening processing margins for domestic crushers.

Import expectations strengthen

China’s corn imports increased 61.3% year on year in the first half of 2026 to 1.36 million tonnes, according to figures cited by Notícias Agrícolas. Sorghum purchases rose 86.2%, while barley imports increased 53.4%. China imported no US corn during the period but bought 2.98 million tonnes of US sorghum, almost four times its purchases for the whole of 2025, Reuters reported.

Brazilian sorghum shipments to China have already begun, with indications of substantial volumes through the end of 2026. Analysts expect any additional Chinese purchases to be directed mainly toward Brazil and the United States. Darin Friedrichs, co-founder of Sitonia Consulting, said the focus would likely be corn or sorghum because, after soybeans, these have historically been the highest-value export products sold to China.

Price effects reach Chicago and Brazil

Grain futures have risen broadly. The December corn contract in Chicago advanced from $4.74 to $5.35 per bushel in one month, a gain reported by Notícias Agrícolas as 12.95. December wheat rose 12.6%, from $6.60 to $7.48 per bushel, while soybean futures gained almost 5% over 30 days. Corn futures reached their highest levels in three years.

Stronger Chicago prices and expectations of sustained Chinese demand have improved returns for Brazilian producers. Brazilian soybean prices reached their highest levels since early 2023, according to Notícias Agrícolas. The outlook remains sensitive to Brazil’s 2026/27 harvest: analysts cited by the publication see potential productivity risks from El Niño. A combination of stronger Chinese purchases and a smaller Brazilian crop would tighten global supply, increase volatility and raise feed costs for meat producers.