Chicago soybean selloff stalls Brazilian trade as planting takes focus
Chicago soybean futures fell more than 30 points after the oilseed was excluded from a US-China tariff reduction list. Brazil’s stronger currency conversion partly cushioned local prices, but liquidity dried up as producers focused on planting.
Tariff decision triggers a sharp futures decline
Chicago soybean futures fell sharply on Monday, September 28, after soybeans were excluded from a list of US agricultural products receiving lower Chinese tariffs. According to Notícias Agrícolas, the November 2026 contract lost 30.75 points to close at $12.88 per bushel, breaking below the psychologically important $13 level. January 2027 fell 29.50 points to $13.03, March declined 27.50 points to $13.12, and May 2027 — a reference for Brazil’s crop — ended at $13.19, down 26.50 points.
SpaceMoney reported that the November contract declined 2.33%, while soybean meal for December 2026 dropped 3.12% to $359.40 per tonne. Soybean oil for the same delivery month slipped 0.26% to 67.66 cents per pound. Grain futures lost about 3% at their intraday low as traders unwound long positions.
The tariff list announced by Beijing and Washington included corn, wheat, meat and dairy products. Notícias Agrícolas reported that it also covered sorghum, soybean oil and soybean meal, but not US soybeans, which remain subject to an additional 10% tariff. The exclusion disappointed traders who had expected further agricultural agreements after the previous week’s meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. No additional purchase commitment was announced.
Harvest and stock data add supply pressure
Vlamir Brandalizze of Brandalizze Consulting told Notícias Agrícolas that the market had returned to seasonal fundamentals: the advancing US harvest, farmer deliveries and rising supply pressure. The USDA said 12% of the US soybean area had been harvested, compared with 8% a year earlier and an 8% five-year average.
Traders were also adjusting positions before the USDA’s quarterly US soybean stocks report, scheduled for September 30. Analysts and brokers surveyed ahead of the release expected September 1 stocks of 323 million bushels, slightly below 325 million bushels a year earlier. Inventories had stood at 1.061 billion bushels on June 1.
China may retain room to negotiate purchases later and wait for lower prices, according to Brandalizze. Notícias Agrícolas said available information indicated that Sinograin and COFCO had already purchased more than 12 million tonnes of US soybeans. That is close to half of the annual 25-million-tonne commitment claimed by the White House, although Beijing has not publicly confirmed that target.
Currency cushions prices but Brazilian liquidity fades
The Chicago decline pushed most Brazilian physical-market quotations lower and brought trading close to a standstill. SpaceMoney cited Safras & Mercado analyst Rafael Silveira as saying that few transactions were completed because buyers and sellers withdrew from the market. Producers were also turning their attention to the start of planting for the next crop.
Passo Fundo fell to R$155.00 per sack and Santa Rosa to R$156.00. Rio Verde posted the largest decline, reaching R$145.00, while Rondonópolis was the only monitored market to rise, at R$148.00. Port quotations stood at R$161.00 in Paranaguá and R$163.00 in Rio Grande. Earlier indications had been near R$162.00 for October and as high as R$165.00 for November and December, according to Notícias Agrícolas.
The commercial dollar gained 0.78% to close at R$5.2256, after trading between R$5.1915 and R$5.2266. Its move above R$5.20, together with relatively stable nearby export premiums of 120 to 140 points, limited the decline in local-currency soybean prices. Even so, weak offers and the absence of urgency among buyers left liquidity low as the US harvest and Brazilian planting shifted negotiating leverage toward purchasers.
