Chicago corn, wheat and soybean futures rise as tanker strike adds geopolitical risk
Chicago corn, soybean and soft red winter wheat futures advanced on July 28 as a claimed Houthi strike on the Saudi tanker NCC Ghazal heightened geopolitical concerns. Crop conditions, US export sales and revised forecasts for Brazil, Russia and the EU also shaped trading.
Geopolitical risk returns to agricultural markets
Chicago corn, soybean and soft red winter wheat futures rose on Tuesday, July 28, 2026, as geopolitical tension added a fresh risk premium to agricultural markets. Yemen’s Houthi movement Ansar Allah said it had attacked the Saudi oil tanker NCC Ghazal with ballistic missiles, according to zol.ru. Markets were also awaiting US-Iran negotiations and a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.
The gains were not uniform across wheat classes. September Chicago soft red winter wheat closed at $6.62-1/2 per bushel, up 2 1/2 cents, while December gained 2 1/4 cents to $6.79-3/4. September Kansas City hard red winter wheat fell 2 3/4 cents to $7.26-1/4, and September Minneapolis spring wheat declined 3 3/4 cents to $7.02-1/2.
On a per-tonne basis, September Chicago wheat settled at $243.42, up 0.38%. September corn reached $180.51 per tonne, a 1.50% increase, while November soybeans rose 0.51% to $448.27 per tonne. European markets moved in the opposite direction: September milling wheat in Paris fell 0.62% to the dollar equivalent of $259.00 per tonne, and August corn dropped 2.90% to $282.03.
US crop ratings support corn and soybeans
September corn futures closed 6 3/4 cents higher at $4.58-1/2 per bushel, while December added 6 1/2 cents to $4.80-1/2. The US Department of Agriculture also reported a private sale of 197,272 tonnes of new-crop corn to undisclosed destinations.
NASS data showed that 78% of the US corn crop was silking by July 26, four percentage points ahead of the five-year average, and 25% had reached the milk stage. However, the share rated good or excellent fell by four percentage points to 63%. Soybean development was also advanced: 80% of the crop was blooming and 47% was setting pods, eight percentage points ahead of the five-year average, but its good-to-excellent rating declined by three percentage points to 63%.
August soybeans gained 3 1/2 cents to $12.12 per bushel, September rose 5 cents to $12.04-3/4, and November advanced 6 1/4 cents to $12.20. China’s Sinograin was scheduled to auction 504,000 tonnes of imported soybeans on July 31, adding another near-term supply indicator for traders.
Export forecasts reshape the global supply picture
Brazilian exporters’ association ANEC estimated July corn exports at 3.3 million tonnes, down 0.4 million tonnes from its previous weekly estimate but above the 2.43 million tonnes shipped a year earlier. ANEC also cut its estimate for Brazilian soybean exports in July by 1 million tonnes to 12.5 million tonnes, compared with 12.257 million tonnes in July 2025.
Abiove projected that Brazil would process 63.3 million tonnes of soybeans in 2026, an increase of 0.3 million tonnes from its previous forecast. It put exports at 115.4 million tonnes, 1.3 million tonnes above its June projection, while expected ending stocks were reduced by 1.29 million tonnes to 6.58 million tonnes.
For wheat, NASS reported that 81% of the US winter crop had been harvested, two percentage points ahead of normal. EU soft wheat exports from July 1 to July 26 totaled 0.57 million tonnes, 0.89 million tonnes below the same period of 2025, according to European Commission data. SovEcon cut its Russian wheat export forecast by 1.9 million tonnes to 44.6 million tonnes and reduced its total grain export projection from 56.1 million to 53.8 million tonnes, while raising its corn forecast to 3.6 million tonnes.
